What is the expert prediction for Deportivo Alavés vs Real Sociedad?

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Deportivo Alavés vs Real Sociedad Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Wednesday, February 04, 2026)

Match Info

Copa del Rey - Quarter-finals

Date: 4 February 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Mendizorrotza (Vitoria-Gasteiz)

Referee: Quintero A. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Flow Eventos, Flow Sports
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 3
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
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Colombia	Win play
Croatia	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 5, Cytavision Sports 5
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Finland	Disney+, Veikkaus TV
France	DAZN France
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
India	FanCode, FanCode
Italy	DAZN Italia
Macao	Macau Cable TV 35 Sports
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
North-central-america	Flow Sports 2 Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
Norway	Disney+
Paraguay	Flow Eventos
Peru	America TV GO, America TV, Movistar TV App
Poland	Eleven Sports 3
Romania	Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 3, Prima Sport 5
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Saudi-arabia	MBC Shahid
Serbia	Arena Premium 5
Slovenia	Arena Sport 4
Spain	LaLiga TV Bar 2, M+ LaLiga 2
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	S Sport+
Uruguay	Flow
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Inter, Meridiano, Venevision


	Deportivo Alavés		Real Sociedad

	1	X	2
	2.85	3.1	2.4	Watch
	2.98	3.15	2.52
	3.06	3.19	2.56
	2.99	3.2	2.5	Watch
	2.88	2.9	2.5
	3.08	3.16	2.56	Watch
	3	3.14	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.98 ↑ (2.96)	3.12 ↑ (3.01)	2.5 ↓ (2.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Alavés
31.8%

Draw
30.3%

Real Sociedad
37.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.9%

31.4%

36.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.3%

31.8%

36.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Alavés has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Real Sociedad has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Alavés than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Sociedad than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.2%	37.8%	45.9%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 36 users predict this event. Alavés will win (votes: 5 - 13.9%). Real Sociedad will win (votes: 17 - 47.2%). It will Tie (votes: 14 - 38.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Real Sociedad: 30.9% – 63.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Alavés (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Real Sociedad (votes: 4 - 50%). Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Alavés (2.02) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 66.7%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

TQ, OT - Real Sociedad (1.77) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Real Sociedad (1.64) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1 - Alavés (1.25) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Alavés (votes: 3 - 25%). Real Sociedad (votes: 6 - 50%). Tie (votes: 3 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Fernandez R. (G) 17. Jonny Otto 14. Tenaglia N. 5. Pacheco J. 24. Parada V. 20. Calebe 4. Suarez D. 6. Guevara A. (C) 21. Rebbach A. 34. Manas A. 11. Martinez T.	1. Remiro A. (G) 2. Aramburu J. 31. Martin J. 16. Caleta-Car D. 3. Munoz A. 11. Guedes G. 8. Turrientes B. 18. Soler C. 17. Gomez S. 23. Mendez B. 10. Oyarzabal M. (C)
Substitutes
10. Alena C. 8. Blanco A. 15. Boye L. 2. Garces F. 18. Guridi J. 19. Ibanez P. 7. Perez A. 1. Sivera A. (G) 31. Swiderski G. (G) 3. Yusi	26. Diaz D. 6. Elustondo A. 32. Fraga A. (G) 4. Gorrotxategi J. 12. Herrera Y. 15. Marin P. 20. Odriozola A. 9. Oskarsson O. 24. Sucic L. 22. Wesley 5. Zubeldia I.
Coaches
Coudet E.	Matarazzo P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
8', 1 - 0, Rebbach A. ⚽, Manas A. (A),
15', 1 - 1, Oyarzabal M. ⚽, Guedes G. (A),
28', Turrientes B. 🟨,
29', 2 - 1, Martinez T. (Penalty Awarded),
37', Guedes G. 🟨,
45+1', Munoz A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
59', Aramburu J. ↓, Odriozola A. ↑,
59', Soler C. ↓, Sucic L. ↑,
66', Caleta-Car D. 🟨,
67', Martinez T. (Penalty Awarded),
71', Manas A. ↓, Boye L. ↑,
71', Calebe ↓, Ibanez P. ↑,
74', Mendez B. ↓, Oskarsson O. ↑,
74', Munoz A. ↓, Diaz D. ↑,
75', Guevara A. 🟨,
76', 2 - 2, Guedes G. ⚽, Turrientes B. (A),
80', 2 - 3, Oskarsson O. ⚽, Sucic L. (A),
83', Boye L. 🟨,
84', Suarez D. ↓, Alena C. ↑,
84', Rebbach A. ↓, Perez A. ↑,
90+1', Pacheco J. ↓, Guridi J. ↑,
90+2', Guedes G. ↓, Zubeldia I. ↑,
90+8', Ibanez P. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alavés won 3.

In recent matches, Alavés has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Real Sociedad is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Real Sociedad may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Alavés: Diabate I. (Inactive) Diaz M. (Coach's decision) Protesoni C. (Injury)

There will not play in Real Sociedad: Barrenetxea A. (Muscle Injury) Karrikaburu J. (Inactive) Kubo T. (Muscle Injury) Marrero U. (Injury) Ruperez I. (Knee Injury) Zakharyan A. (Calf Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Alavés won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 16:23. (average 0.8:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Alavés won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:7. (average 0.8:0.8).

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Last Results with these Odds

Deportivo Alavés - the odds 2.96 are the expected chance of winning is 31.94%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Real Sociedad - the odds 2.58 are the expected chance of winning is 36.65%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Alavés
Spanish LaLiga
30.01.26	Espanyol - Deportivo Alavés	1:2 ✺
25.01.26	Deportivo Alavés - Betis	2:1 ✺
18.01.26	Atlético Madrid - Deportivo Alavés	1:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
14.01.26	Deportivo Alavés - Rayo Vallecano	2:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
10.01.26	Villarreal - Deportivo Alavés	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17 WWLWL
- Real Sociedad
Spanish LaLiga
01.02.26	Athletic Bilbao - Real Sociedad	1:1 ✺
25.01.26	Real Sociedad - Celta de Vigo	3:1 ✺
18.01.26	Real Sociedad - Barcelona	2:1 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
13.01.26	Real Sociedad - Osasuna	3:2 penalties ✺
Spanish LaLiga
09.01.26	Getafe - Real Sociedad	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.1 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
06.12.25	Deportivo Alavés - Real Sociedad	1:0
23.04.25	Deportivo Alavés - Real Sociedad	1:0
28.08.24	Real Sociedad - Deportivo Alavés	1:2
Club Friendly
20.07.24	Deportivo Alavés - Real Sociedad	1:1
Spanish LaLiga
31.03.24	Deportivo Alavés - Real Sociedad	0:1
02.01.24	Real Sociedad - Deportivo Alavés	1:1
13.03.22	Real Sociedad - Deportivo Alavés	1:0

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