The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Delfín 53.2%
Draw 26.2%
El Nacional 20.6%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
36.9%
28.4%
34.8%
Our Initial ML Estimation
35.4%
27.2%
36.3%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Delfín has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.3%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Delfín's performance.
El Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.2%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and El Nacional might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Delfín than the current prediction. (-17.8%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Delfín that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for El Nacional than the current prediction. (+15.7%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that El Nacional could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Delfín - El Nacional Predictions
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
AH +0.5 - El Nacional (2.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. El Nacional (votes: 1 - 100%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Heras B. (G) 26. Estacio J. 25. Cabeza E. 6. Burdisso M. 5. Gallardo N. 14. Zuniga E. 24. Leon J. 71. Nazareno J. 7. Vega E. 19. Cuello B. 18. Perez Tica J.
30. Congo J. (G) 18. Rivera B. 4. Cabezas Briones R. A. 5. Flor F. 7. Chala J. 17. Velez C. 26. Mena A. 22. Mora F. 55. Mejia Moreira J. D. 10. Borja J. 99. Reasco D.
Substitutes
40. Alvarez A. 8. Batalla H. 27. Cagua G. 2. Caicedo M. 22. Cardenas J. (G) 16. Castro L. 29. Cuero Q. C. A. 17. Fernandez O. 10. Mendoza E. 50. Ozaeta T. 99. Tenorio L. 11. Vivar J.
56. Benalcazar L. 59. Borja F. 1. Chala L. (G) 27. Cifuentes J. 9. De Jesus B. 2. Mazamba S. 28. Puente J.
Coaches
Urrutia P.
Perez J. C.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 2)
21', Reasco D. (Pen),
26', 0 - 1, Reasco D. ⚽, Mena A. (A),
37', Gallardo N. 🟨,
37', Chala J. 🟨,
37', Mejia Moreira J. D. 🟨,
39', 0 - 2, Reasco D. ⚽, Mena A. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Gallardo N. ↓, Fernandez O. ↑,
46', Leon J. ↓, Batalla H. ↑,
46', Vega E. ↓, Castro L. ↑,
60', Nazareno J. ↓, Alvarez A. ↑,
61', Leon J. 🟥,
64', Gallardo N. 🟨,
77', 1 - 2, Castro L. ⚽, Cabeza E. (A),
78', Borja J. ↓, Borja F. ↑,
80', 2 - 2, Estacio J. ⚽,
82', Perez Tica J. ↓, Tenorio L. ↑,
84', Mejia Moreira J. D. ↓, Benalcazar L. ↑,
87', Cabezas Briones R. A. 🟨,
90+4', Mora F. 🟨,
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Delfín won 0.
In recent matches, Delfín has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 0 wins).
El Nacional has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
In this match, Delfín is a strong favorite.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Delfín won 8 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 34:27. (average 1.7:1.4).
Including home matches between the teams, Delfín won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 19:13. (average 1.9:1.3).
Ecuador
Peru
Watch
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Heras B. (G) 
Burdisso M. 
Fernandez O. 
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