The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
El Nacional 28.7%
Draw 28%
Deportivo Macará 43.3%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
35.6%
28.9%
35.5%
Our Initial ML Estimation
35.5%
28.8%
35.6%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
El Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that El Nacional's form might have worsened.
Deportivo Macará has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Deportivo Macará's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for El Nacional than the current prediction. (+6.8%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for El Nacional, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Macará than the current prediction. (-7.7%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Deportivo Macará, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
0%
16.7%
83.3%
El Nacional - Deportivo Macará Predictions
Users Predictions:
6 users predict this event. Macará will win (votes: 5 - 83.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
DNB - Macará (1.66) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Deportivo Macará will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Macará (votes: 4 - 100%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
30. Congo J. (G) 5. Flor F. 3. Carabali F. 18. Rivera B. 25. Montano M. 17. Velez C. (C) 26. Mena A. 7. Chala J. 55. Mejia Moreira J. D. 24. Mora F. 99. Reasco D.
22. Cevallos J. (G) 11. Espinoza T. 2. Arena N. 14. Marrufo J. (C) 13. Ayala M. 16. Cazares J. 20. Viera M. 15. Tello M. 70. Gonzalez P. 7. Paz F. 9. Juambeltz M.
Substitutes
56. Benalcazar L. 59. Borja F. 11. Branda V. 1. Chala L. (G) 16. Cifuentes J. 9. De Jesus B. 20. Guisamano J. 13. Hernandez B. 2. Mazamba S. 28. Puente J.
5. Alvarez L. 8. Blanc G. 6. Caicedo B. 33. Chere A. 12. Cuero D. (G) 4. Jimenez J. 21. Ledesma A. 23. Mesa Mercado E. E. 27. Mohor J. 10. Morales J. 26. Zamora S.
Coaches
Perez J. C.
Sanguinetti G.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (2 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, Chala J. ⚽, Reasco D. (A),
21', Mena A. 🟨,
29', Carabali F. 🟨,
35', 2 - 0, Mejia Moreira J. D. ⚽,
41', Gonzalez P. 🟨,
45', Montano M. 🟥,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
63', Viera M. ↓, Morales J. ↑,
63', Gonzalez P. ↓, Ledesma A. ↑,
63', Tello M. ↓, Blanc G. ↑,
68', Mejia Moreira J. D. ↓, Guisamano J. ↑,
77', Ayala M. ↓, Mohor J. ↑,
81', Velez C. 🟨,
81', Chala J. 🟨,
83', Mora F. ↓, Hernandez B. ↑,
83', Juambeltz M. ↓, Chere A. ↑,
90+1', Mena A. ↓, Benalcazar L. ↑,
90+1', Reasco D. ↓, Borja F. ↑,
90+2', Marrufo J. 🟨,
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, El Nacional won 1.
El Nacional has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).
Macará is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).
Macará may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
Macará might have a minor edge in this game.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, El Nacional won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 22:27. (average 1.1:1.4).
Including home matches between the teams, El Nacional won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 14:13. (average 1.4:1.3).
Last Results with these Odds
Deportivo Macará - the odds 2.6 are the expected chance of winning is 35.47%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.
Ecuador
Peru
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Congo J. (G) 
Arena N. 
Marrufo J. (C) 
Gonzalez P. 
Morales J. 
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