Match Info

Liga Pro - Placement Group - Round 2

Date: 20 October 2025, Monday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito)

Referee: Gonzalez G. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	El Nacional		Deportivo Cuenca

	1	X	2
	3.25	3.05	2.2	Watch
	3.25	3.1	2.18
	3.52	3.07	2.27
	3.35	2.98	2.29	Watch
	3.26	3.12	2.26	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.33 ↑ (2.34)	3.06 ↓ (3.28)	2.24 ↓ (2.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

El Nacional
28%

Draw
30.4%

Deportivo Cuenca
41.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.8%

27.7%

33.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.1%

27.5%

33.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

El Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that El Nacional's form might have worsened.

Deportivo Cuenca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Deportivo Cuenca's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for El Nacional than the current prediction. (+11.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for El Nacional, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Cuenca than the current prediction. (-8.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Deportivo Cuenca, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	14.3%	85.7%

El Nacional - Deportivo Cuenca Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Deportivo Cuenca will win (votes: 6 - 85.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Deportivo Cuenca (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Congo J. (G) 5. Flor F. 4. Cabezas Briones R. A. 18. Rivera B. 7. Chala J. 26. Mena A. 17. Velez C. (C) 20. Guisamano J. 55. Mejia Moreira J. D. 25. Montano M. 99. Reasco D.	1. Bustos B. (G) 16. Gustavino L. 19. Gomez A. 6. Raggio E. 8. Calderon R. 32. Moreno K. 43. Ordonez J. 99. Luna Tobar C. 25. Lopez A. 17. Rodriguez A. 7. Mancinelli L. (C)
Substitutes
56. Benalcazar L. 59. Borja F. 1. Chala L. (G) 16. Cifuentes J. 9. De Jesus B. 2. Mazamba S. 24. Mora F. 28. Puente J.	55. Anguisaca F. 14. Chacon J. 23. Guevara E. 9. Leguizamon N. 30. Maccari M. 22. Mendez J. (G) 77. Nazareno B. 18. Piedra M. 15. Solis Jaramillo M. A.
Coaches
Perez J. C.	Araujo N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
30', 0 - 1, Ordonez J. ⚽, Luna Tobar C. (A),
33', Rivera B. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Rivera B. ↓, Mazamba S. ↑,
58', Calderon R. ↓, Maccari M. ↑,
59', 0 - 2, Luna Tobar C. ⚽, Rodriguez A. (A),
69', Guisamano J. ↓, Benalcazar L. ↑,
80', Cabezas Briones R. A. 🟥,
82', Mena A. ↓, Mora F. ↑,
85', Lopez A. ↓, Anguisaca F. ↑,
85', Mancinelli L. ↓, Chacon J. ↑,
90+1', Ordonez J. ↓, Leguizamon N. ↑,
90+1', Luna Tobar C. ↓, Solis Jaramillo M. A. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, El Nacional won 2.

El Nacional has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Deportivo Cuenca has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Deportivo Cuenca has had a series of away games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, El Nacional won 6 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 22:25. (average 1.1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, El Nacional won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:10. (average 1.3:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD El Nacional
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
04.10.25	Delfín - El Nacional	2:2 ✺
27.09.25	El Nacional - Mushuc Runa	0:5 ✺
21.09.25	Emelec - El Nacional	4:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
18.09.25	9 de Octubre - El Nacional	2:1 penalties ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
14.09.25	El Nacional - Deportivo Macará	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 TLLLL
- Deportivo Cuenca
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
04.10.25	Emelec - Deportivo Cuenca	3:1 ✺
28.09.25	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Deportivo Cuenca	2:1 ✺
21.09.25	Deportivo Cuenca - Barcelona Guayaquil	0:1 ✺
14.09.25	Técnico Universitario - Deportivo Cuenca	0:2 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
10.09.25	SD Aucas - Deportivo Cuenca	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
15.06.25	Deportivo Cuenca - El Nacional	4:1
16.02.25	El Nacional - Deportivo Cuenca	0:1
31.08.24	Deportivo Cuenca - El Nacional	1:2
24.03.24	El Nacional - Deportivo Cuenca	2:1
25.11.23	Deportivo Cuenca - El Nacional	1:0
10.06.23	El Nacional - Deportivo Cuenca	3:1
30.10.20	Deportivo Cuenca - El Nacional	0:0

Upcoming Matches