Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 25

Date: 18 August 2025, Monday

Location: Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar (Cuenca)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	Deportivo Cuenca		Vinotinto

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.5	4.75	Watch
	1.72	3.4	4.45	Watch
	1.76	3.67	4.71
	1.83	3.30	4.57	Watch
	1.75	3.2	4.2
	1.72	3.5	4.94	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↑ (1.67)	3.43 ↓ (3.6)	4.6 ↓ (5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Cuenca
52.9%

Draw
27%

Vinotinto
20.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.6%

25.8%

18.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.1%

24.7%

17.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Cuenca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Vinotinto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Cuenca than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Deportivo Cuenca, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vinotinto than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Deportivo Cuenca - Vinotinto Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Deportivo Cuenca will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Deportivo Cuenca (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bustos B. (G) 16. Gustavino L. 18. Piedra M. 19. Gomez A. (C) 6. Raggio E. 30. Maccari M. 32. Moreno K. 14. Chacon J. 17. Rodriguez A. 11. Estupinan L. 43. Ordonez J.	25. Mitre L. (G) 36. Nardelli G. (C) 4. Aguirre A. 26. Hernandez E. 23. Gomez L. 15. Larotonda C. 30. Julio M. 11. Mina A. 10. Luna D. 7. Lugo J. 77. Ibarra R.
Substitutes
29. Arroyo L. 25. Lopez A. 99. Luna Tobar C. 7. Mancinelli L. 12. Minda E. (G) 21. Morocho S. 77. Nazareno B. 5. Noboa D. 15. Solis Jaramillo M. A.	13. Carrasco Bonilla M. A. 5. Coba K. 2. Iriarte I. 1. Lopez J. (G) 8. Melo A. 3. Micolta C. 17. Monti R. 6. Ona C. 22. Rodriguez E. 18. Ushina K.
Coaches
Araujo N.	Grabowski J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
21', Larotonda C. 🟨,
35', 1 - 0, Rodriguez A. ⚽,
44', Mina A. 🟨,
45', 2 - 0, Gustavino L. ⚽, Estupinan L. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Chacon J. ↓, Luna Tobar C. ↑,
63', Maccari M. 🟨,
66', Rodriguez A. ↓, Arroyo L. ↑,
66', Ordonez J. ↓, Mancinelli L. ↑,
72', Mina A. ↓, Ushina K. ↑,
72', Aguirre A. ↓, Coba K. ↑,
72', Lugo J. ↓, Monti R. ↑,
72', Larotonda C. ↓, Melo A. ↑,
74', Piedra M. ↓, Lopez A. ↑,
90', Maccari M. ↓, Morocho S. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: ) and 15 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )).

Deportivo Cuenca has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Vinotinto has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Vinotinto may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Deportivo Cuenca is considered a favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Deportivo Cuenca won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Cuenca
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
11.08.25	Emelec - Deportivo Cuenca	1:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
07.08.25	Baños Ciudad de Fuego - Deportivo Cuenca	0:2 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
01.08.25	Deportivo Cuenca - Deportivo Macará	1:1 ✺
27.07.25	Deportivo Cuenca - Independiente del Valle	0:3 ✺
20.07.25	LDU Quito - Deportivo Cuenca	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 TWTLT
- Vinotinto Ecuador
Ecuadorian Copa
14.08.25	Gualaceo - Vinotinto	2:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
10.08.25	Vinotinto - Técnico Universitario	0:1 ✺
04.08.25	Delfín - Vinotinto	3:3 ✺
26.07.25	Vinotinto - Orense	0:1 ✺
19.07.25	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Vinotinto	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
26.04.25	Vinotinto - Deportivo Cuenca	0:1

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