Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 23

Date: 4 August 2025, Monday

Location: Estadio Jocay (Manta)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	Delfín		Vinotinto

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.4	3.8	Watch
	1.82	3.2	3.9
	1.85	3.25	4.15	Watch
	1.97	3.25	4.34
	1.41	4.37	7.71	Watch
	1.91	3.1	4
	1.89	3.36	4.12	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.82 ↓ (2.18)	3.42 ↑ (3.21)	4.57 ↑ (3.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Delfín
51.8%

Draw
27.6%

Vinotinto
20.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.8%

29.1%

28.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.2%

28.2%

27.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Delfín has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Delfín's performance.

Vinotinto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Vinotinto might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Delfín than the current prediction. (-7.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Delfín that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vinotinto than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Vinotinto could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.2%	11.8%	0%

Delfín - Vinotinto Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Vinotinto (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Delfín will win (15 of 17 users predict this - 88.24%).
Confidence interval (95%): 72.93% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Delfín will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Delfín (votes: 7 - 87.5%). Vinotinto (votes: 1 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Heras B. (G) 25. Cabeza E. 5. Gallardo N. 3. Parrales J. 24. Leon J. 26. Estacio J. 7. Vega E. (C) 29. Cuero Q. C. A. 10. Mendoza E. 55. Reyes M. 18. Perez Tica J.	25. Mitre L. (G) 36. Nardelli G. 4. Aguirre A. 26. Hernandez E. 22. Rodriguez E. 5. Coba K. 30. Julio M. 18. Ushina K. 10. Luna D. 17. Monti R. 77. Ibarra R. (C)
Substitutes
40. Alvarez A. 8. Batalla H. 27. Cagua G. 2. Caicedo M. 22. Cardenas J. (G) 33. Cardenas Salazar O. B. (G) 16. Castro L. 17. Fernandez O. 71. Nazareno J. 50. Ozaeta T. 11. Vivar J. 14. Zuniga E.	13. Carrasco Bonilla M. A. 23. Gomez L. 2. Iriarte I. 15. Larotonda C. 1. Lopez J. (G) 7. Lugo J. 8. Melo A. 11. Mina A. 6. Ona C.
Coaches
Urrutia P.	Grabowski J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
2', 1 - 0, Mendoza E. ⚽, Gallardo N. (A),
26', 1 - 1, Monti R. ⚽, Luna D. (A),
33', Vega E. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Cabeza E. ↓, Batalla H. ↑,
47', 2 - 1, Perez Tica J. ⚽, Vega E. (A),
49', Ushina K. 🟨,
52', 3 - 1, Mendoza E. ⚽,
61', Rodriguez E. ↓, Gomez L. ↑,
61', Coba K. ↓, Larotonda C. ↑,
61', Ushina K. ↓, Mina A. ↑,
67', Hernandez E. 🟨,
71', 3 - 2, Monti R. ⚽,
75', 3 - 3, Ibarra R. ⚽,
80', Perez Tica J. ↓, Nazareno J. ↑,
80', Reyes M. ↓, Vivar J. ↑,
84', Julio M. ↓, Melo A. ↑,
86', Hernandez E. 🟨,
88', Luna D. ↓, Iriarte I. ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: ) and 12 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )).

Each of the two teams has experienced multiple losses lately.

Delfín could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Delfín won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Delfín SC
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
26.07.25	SD Aucas - Delfín	2:1 ✺
19.07.25	Delfín - Barcelona Guayaquil	0:1 ✺
13.07.25	Deportivo Cuenca - Delfín	1:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
10.07.25	Deportivo Santo Domingo - Delfín	3:2 penalties ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
06.07.25	Delfín - LDU Quito	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LLTLL
- Vinotinto Ecuador
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
26.07.25	Vinotinto - Orense	0:1 ✺
19.07.25	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Vinotinto	3:0 ✺
13.07.25	Vinotinto - Mushuc Runa	1:1 ✺
05.07.25	Emelec - Vinotinto	2:0 ✺
30.06.25	Vinotinto - SD Aucas	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
09.04.25	Vinotinto - Delfín	5:0

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