Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 21

Date: 19 July 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito)

Referee: Miranda K. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Teleamazonas
Peru	Zapping Sports


	Universidad Católica del Ecuador		Vinotinto

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.7	4.5	Watch
	1.6	3.6	4.5
	1.68	3.7	4.45	Watch
	1.73	3.79	4.8
	1.76	3.72	4.43	Watch
	1.65	3.7	4.8
	1.7	3.79	4.59	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↑ (1.44)	3.71 ↓ (4.35)	4.58 ↓ (6.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Universidad Católica del Ecuador
54.9%

Draw
24.9%

Vinotinto
20.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.3%

21.3%

14.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.5%

16.1%

19.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Universidad Católica del Ecuador has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Universidad Católica del Ecuador's form might have worsened.

Vinotinto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Vinotinto's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Universidad Católica del Ecuador than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Universidad Católica del Ecuador that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vinotinto than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	28.6%	0%

Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Vinotinto Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Uni Católica will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Lara J. (G) 29. Anangono G. 2. Sevillano M. 33. Canga L. 30. Mejia E. 5. Cacciabue J. 9. Londono A. 28. Diaz M. 32. Alonso M. 8. Clavijo E. 18. Palacios B.	25. Mitre L. (G) 4. Aguirre A. (C) 36. Nardelli G. 26. Hernandez E. 18. Ushina K. 23. Gomez L. 8. Melo A. 15. Larotonda C. 77. Ibarra R. 7. Lugo J. 17. Monti R.
Substitutes
53. Bumbila E. 25. Caicedo R. 1. Cueva L. 10. Martinez F. 37. Medina C. 15. Moreno L. 23. Rodriguez A. 14. Sanchez I. 17. Troya R. 44. Valencia E. 26. Yanez Zambrano S.	13. Carrasco Bonilla M. A. 5. Coba K. 2. Iriarte I. 52. Julio M. 1. Lopez J. (G) 10. Luna D. 11. Mina A. 6. Ona C. 22. Rodriguez E.
Coaches
Martinez D.	Grabowski J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
26', Cacciabue J. ↓, Moreno L. ↑,
44', 1 - 0, Clavijo E. ⚽, Londono A. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Lugo J. ↓, Luna D. ↑,
65', Melo A. ↓, Julio M. ↑,
65', Larotonda C. ↓, Coba K. ↑,
70', 2 - 0, Anangono G. ⚽,
71', Diaz M. ↓, Rodriguez A. ↑,
71', Mejia E. ↓, Valencia E. ↑,
72', 3 - 0, Alonso M. ⚽,
76', Sevillano M. 🟨,
79', Ushina K. ↓, Carrasco Bonilla M. A. ↑,
82', Alonso M. ↓, Yanez Zambrano S. ↑,
83', Palacios B. ↓, Sanchez I. ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: ) and 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )).

Uni Católica has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Vinotinto has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Uni Católica is a strong favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Uni Católica won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Universidad Católica del Ecuador
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
12.07.25	Manta - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	4:2 ✺
05.07.25	Mushuc Runa - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	1:1 ✺
29.06.25	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Independiente del Valle	0:3 ✺
25.06.25	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Emelec	1:1 ✺
21.06.25	El Nacional - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LTLTW
- Vinotinto Ecuador
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
13.07.25	Vinotinto - Mushuc Runa	1:1 ✺
05.07.25	Emelec - Vinotinto	2:0 ✺
30.06.25	Vinotinto - SD Aucas	0:1 ✺
21.06.25	Deportivo Macará - Vinotinto	1:0 ✺
14.06.25	Vinotinto - LDU Quito	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
29.03.25	Vinotinto - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	3:2

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