Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 11

Date: 26 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Bellavista (Ambato)

Referee: Leon R. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Chile	Zapping Sports
Ecuador	Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports


	Deportivo Macará		Libertad Loja

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.4	3.8	Watch
	2	3	3.4
	1.88	3.2	4.05
	1.99	3.2	4.54
	1.83	3.3	4.69	Watch
	1.85	3	4
	1.88	3.36	4.2	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.9 ↓ (2.02)	3.21 ↓ (3.33)	4.1 ↑ (3.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Macará
48.7%

Draw
28.8%

Libertad Loja
22.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.2%

28%

25.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.5%

26.7%

24.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Macará has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Libertad Loja has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Macará than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Libertad Loja than the current prediction. (+2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Deportivo Macará - Libertad Loja Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Libertad (1.89) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Libertad (1.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Deportivo Macará will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Libertad (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Cuero D. (G) 25. Bolanos D. 4. Jimenez J. 14. Marrufo J. (C) 27. Mohor J. 8. Blanc G. 15. Tello M. 20. Viera M. 30. Chamba T. 87. Klinger J. 22. Ferro L.	12. Cabezas D. (G) 25. Lucas M. 20. Rodriguez Perlaza J. G. 36. Garcia A. 70. Branda V. 7. Zambrano I. (C) 63. Valencia C. 17. Patta E. 49. Coronel D. 19. Corozo B. 23. Guisamano J.
Substitutes
13. Ayala M. 50. Caicedo C. 77. Chala J. 3. Espinoza J. 11. Espinoza T. 5. Estacio J. 21. Etchebarne S. 26. Medranda M. 9. Posse F. 19. Ramos P. 1. Rodriguez R. (G) 17. Zambrano J.	11. Batalla H. 9. Caicedo E. 8. Castro S. 33. Chere A. 16. Cifuentes J. 10. Cortez Casierra G. J. 66. Estacio J. (G) 22. Mina J. (G) 29. Zambrano R.
Coaches
Sanguinetti G.	Leon J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Chamba T. ⚽, Klinger J. (A),
16', 2 - 0, Tello M. ⚽, Ferro L. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Viera M. ↓, Espinoza T. ↑,
46', Tello M. ↓, Estacio J. ↑,
46', Corozo B. ↓, Castro S. ↑,
46', Branda V. ↓, Chere A. ↑,
67', Klinger J. ↓, Posse F. ↑,
67', Ferro L. ↓, Caicedo C. ↑,
74', Rodriguez Perlaza J. G. 🟨,
77', 3 - 0, Marrufo J. ⚽,
80', Chamba T. ↓, Ayala M. ↑,
82', Coronel D. ↓, Cortez Casierra G. J. ↑,
82', Guisamano J. ↓, Zambrano R. ↑,
90+2', Valencia C. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: ) and 14 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )).

Macará has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Libertad is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Libertad may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Macará will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Macará won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:1. (average 1.5:0.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Macará won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 2:0.5).

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Macara	31	16	6	9	43:34	9	54

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Macará
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
23.04.26	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Deportivo Macará	4:0 ✺
19.04.26	Deportivo Macará - Barcelona Guayaquil	3:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
16.04.26	Tigre - Deportivo Macará	0:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
12.04.26	Guayaquil City - Deportivo Macará	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
09.04.26	Deportivo Macará - América de Cali	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.1 LWWLT
- Libertad Loja
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
21.04.26	Libertad Loja - Guayaquil City	0:1 ✺
18.04.26	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Libertad Loja	2:0 ✺
11.04.26	Orense - Libertad Loja	2:1 ✺
06.04.26	Libertad Loja - Mushuc Runa	2:2 ✺
21.03.26	Delfín - Libertad Loja	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LLLTT

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
21.09.25	Deportivo Macará - Libertad Loja	1:1
25.05.25	Libertad Loja - Deportivo Macará	0:1
16.08.24	Libertad Loja - Deportivo Macará	0:1
15.03.24	Deportivo Macará - Libertad Loja	3:0

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