Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 10

Date: 21 April 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne (Loja)

Where to Watch on TV:


Chile	Zapping Sports
Ecuador	Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports


	Libertad Loja		Guayaquil City

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.1	3.2	Watch
	2.25	3.1	3.05	Watch
	2.3	3.3	3.37
	2.25	3.18	3.28	Watch
	2.2	2.9	3
	2.26	3.16	3.22	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↑ (2.02)	3.12 ↓ (3.42)	3.19 ↓ (3.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Libertad Loja
41.4%

Draw
29.6%

Guayaquil City
29%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.2%

27.3%

26.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.8%

28.3%

25.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Libertad Loja has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

Guayaquil City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Libertad Loja than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Libertad Loja, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guayaquil City than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	33.3%	16.7%

Libertad Loja - Guayaquil City Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Libertad will win (votes: 3 - 50%). Guayaquil City will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Cabezas D. (G) 17. Patta E. 6. Caicedo B. 25. Lucas M. 36. Garcia A. 63. Valencia C. 70. Branda V. 7. Zambrano I. (C) 10. Cortez Casierra G. J. 33. Chere A. 49. Coronel D.	1. Napa G. (G) 3. Rodriguez Y. 29. Quinonez J. 6. Arias R. (C) 17. Ayovi Caicedo J. J. 14. Arroyo D. 20. Laurino S. 70. Mancilla P. 80. Gonzalez P. 11. Mero E. 10. Diaz D.
Substitutes
52. Bao A. (G) 27. Bueno S. 9. Caicedo E. 8. Castro S. 16. Cifuentes J. 19. Corozo B. 66. Estacio J. (G) 23. Guisamano J. 20. Rodriguez Perlaza J. G.	21. Andrade J. M. 51. Cabezas E. 8. Humanante J. 5. Julio M. 4. Ladines Calvache E. P. 19. Naula A. 16. Ordonez J. 9. Palma M. 12. Perea R. (G) 24. Plada G. 15. Sambonino K. 28. Vivar J.
Coaches
Leon J.	Gavilanez P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
4', Mancilla P. 🟨,
45', Caicedo B. 🟥,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Coronel D. ↓, Rodriguez Perlaza J. G. ↑,
46', Chere A. ↓, Bueno S. ↑,
46', Branda V. ↓, Guisamano J. ↑,
57', Arroyo D. 🟨,
60', Arias R. 🟨,
67', Cortez Casierra G. J. ↓, Caicedo E. ↑,
71', Mancilla P. ↓, Ordonez J. ↑,
71', Arroyo D. ↓, Sambonino K. ↑,
82', 0 - 1, Gonzalez P. (Penalty Awarded),
84', Gonzalez P. ↓, Naula A. ↑,
87', Diaz D. 🟨,
89', Arias R. ↓, Cabezas E. ↑,
89', Diaz D. ↓, Vivar J. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 12 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: ) and 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )).

Libertad has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Guayaquil City is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Guayaquil City may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Libertad is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Libertad won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1. (average 1:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Libertad won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Libertad Loja
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
18.04.26	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Libertad Loja	2:0 ✺
11.04.26	Orense - Libertad Loja	2:1 ✺
06.04.26	Libertad Loja - Mushuc Runa	2:2 ✺
21.03.26	Delfín - Libertad Loja	0:0 ✺
18.03.26	Libertad Loja - Barcelona Guayaquil	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LLTTT
- Guayaquil City FC
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
17.04.26	Emelec - Guayaquil City	1:3 ✺
12.04.26	Guayaquil City - Deportivo Macará	2:1 ✺
04.04.26	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Guayaquil City	4:1 ✺
23.03.26	Guayaquil City - Leones del Norte	0:0 ✺
18.03.26	Manta - Guayaquil City	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.7 WWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
09.10.23	Libertad Loja - Guayaquil City	1:0
06.05.23	Guayaquil City - Libertad Loja	1:1

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