Match Info

Liga Pro - Placement Group - Round 3

Date: 17 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne (Loja) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Gonzalez G. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Ecuador	11:30	Ecuavisa, Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	11:30	Zapping Sports


	Libertad Loja		Guayaquil City

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.30	4.00	Watch
	1.87	3.30	3.50
	1.89	3.35	4.10	Watch
	1.95	3.60	4.06
	1.86	3.44	4.26	Watch
	1.92	3.55	3.80
	1.92	3.33	4.04	Watch
	1.88	3.25	3.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↓ (1.98)	3.39 ↑ (3.27)	3.95 ↑ (3.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Libertad Loja
49.1%

Draw
27.4%

Guayaquil City
23.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

47.1%

28.5%

24.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.6%

27.6%

23.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Libertad Loja has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Guayaquil City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Libertad Loja than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guayaquil City than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Libertad Loja - Guayaquil City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Cabezas D. (C) 17. Patta E. 6. Caicedo B. 2. Morinigo R. 19. Quinonez O. 20. Rodriguez Perlaza J. G. 70. Branda V. 80. Pineda Arana X. E. 30. Bravo J. 10. Cortez Casierra G. J. 33. Chere A.	30. Pinos J. (G) 33. Caicedo R. 3. Rodriguez Y. 4. Ladines Calvache E. P. 6. Arias R. 17. Ayovi Caicedo J. J. 14. Arroyo D. 70. Mancilla P. 80. Gonzalez P. 21. Dorregaray D. 11. Mero E. (C)
Substitutes
11. Batalla H. 9. Caicedo E. 8. Castro S. 49. Coronel D. 66. Estacio J. 5. Gruezo C. 23. Guisamano J. 25. Lucas M. 1. Mina P. (G) 7. Orejuela C. 63. Valencia C.	23. Bolanos M. 51. Cabezas E. 7. Caicedo S. 20. Laurino S. 1. Napa G. (G) 19. Naula A. 16. Ordonez J. 9. Palma M. 12. Perea R. (G) 29. Quinonez J. 15. Sambonino K. 28. Vivar J.
Coaches
Celico J.	Gavilanez P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
16', Caicedo B. 🟨,
23', Morinigo R. 🟨,
40', 1 - 0, Cortez Casierra G. J. ⚽, Bravo J. (A),
2nd Half (3 - 0)
48', 2 - 0, Branda V. ⚽, Bravo J. (A),
55', Gonzalez P. 🟨,
59', 3 - 0, Branda V. ⚽, Patta E. (A),
65', Pineda Arana X. E. ↓, Valencia C. ↑,
65', Chere A. ↓, Caicedo E. ↑,
67', 4 - 0, Rodriguez Perlaza J. G. ⚽, Branda V. (A),
68', Mancilla P. ↓, Laurino S. ↑,
76', Branda V. ↓, Batalla H. ↑,
76', Caicedo B. ↓, Gruezo C. ↑,
79', Arroyo D. ↓, Sambonino K. ↑,
79', Arias R. ↓, Ordonez J. ↑,
80', Cabezas D. ↓, Mina P. ↑,
90+5', Ayovi Caicedo J. J. ↓, Naula A. ↑,
90+6', Mero E. ↓, Palma M. ↑,

Preview

Libertad is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Guayaquil City has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Guayaquil City may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this matchup, Libertad is considered the favorite to take the win.

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Libertad has recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 4:4 (averaging 1:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Libertad against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 1:1 goals (averaging 0.5:0.5 per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Guayaquil City - the odds 3.84 are the expected chance of winning is 24.31%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Libertad Loja
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
09.10.26	Libertad Loja - Leones del Norte	3:0 ✺
19.09.26	Emelec - Libertad Loja	1:2 ✺
13.09.26	Libertad Loja - Independiente del Valle	2:3 ✺
06.09.26	Deportivo Cuenca - Libertad Loja	0:1 ✺
03.09.26	Libertad Loja - Emelec	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.8 WWLWT
- Guayaquil City FC
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
10.10.26	Guayaquil City - Emelec	3:2 ✺
19.09.26	Guayaquil City - Leones del Norte	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Guayaquil City - Mushuc Runa	3:1 ✺
07.09.26	Orense - Guayaquil City	4:3 ✺
02.09.26	Deportivo Cuenca - Guayaquil City	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
15.08.26	Guayaquil City - Libertad Loja	2:2
21.04.26	Libertad Loja - Guayaquil City	0:1
09.10.23	Libertad Loja - Guayaquil City	1:0
06.05.23	Guayaquil City - Libertad Loja	1:1

Upcoming Matches