Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 7

Date: 6 April 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne (Loja)

Referee: Moreira E. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports


	Libertad Loja		Mushuc Runa

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.25	2.75	Watch
	2.35	3.15	2.88	Watch
	2.45	3.26	2.99
	2.26	3.32	3.12	Watch
	2.25	3	2.8
	2.32	3.31	2.98	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.32 ↓ (2.42)	3.22 ↑ (3.2)	2.92 ↑ (2.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Libertad Loja
39.7%

Draw
28.7%

Mushuc Runa
31.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.1%

28.1%

34.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.8%

27.6%

34.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Libertad Loja has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Mushuc Runa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Libertad Loja than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mushuc Runa than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	37.5%	0%

Libertad Loja - Mushuc Runa Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Libertad will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Libertad: 29% – 96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Cabezas D. (G) 17. Patta E. 5. Gruezo C. 36. Garcia A. 20. Rodriguez Perlaza J. G. 19. Corozo B. 23. Guisamano J. 7. Zambrano I. (C) 11. Batalla H. 70. Branda V. 33. Chere A.	25. Formento R. (C) 26. Peralta K. 37. Mancilla Quinones J. L. 2. Flor F. 33. Hernandez J. 99. Angulo C. 5. Davila E. 23. Lemos L. 77. Velasco K. 9. Carrillo R. 32. Orejuela C.
Substitutes
30. Bravo J. 27. Bueno S. 6. Caicedo B. 9. Caicedo E. 49. Coronel D. 10. Cortez Casierra G. J. 66. Estacio J. (G) 25. Lucas M. 22. Mina J. (G) 63. Valencia C. 29. Zambrano R.	14. Caicedo E. 12. Carabali F. 19. Carcelen J. 50. Cusme J. 11. Dibble N. 18. Gonzalez J. 30. Ibarra R. 7. Minda T. 42. Pabon W. (G) 17. Pico O. 8. Zambrano A.
Coaches
Leon J.	Velez P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
4', 0 - 1, Carrillo R. ⚽, Lemos L. (A),
25', 1 - 1, Chere A. ⚽, Guisamano J. (A),
40', 1 - 2, Orejuela C. ⚽, Carrillo R. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Batalla H. ↓, Cortez Casierra G. J. ↑,
60', Peralta K. 🟨,
71', Corozo B. ↓, Valencia C. ↑,
71', Guisamano J. ↓, Bueno S. ↑,
74', Orejuela C. ↓, Zambrano A. ↑,
74', Lemos L. ↓, Gonzalez J. ↑,
80', 2 - 2, Zambrano I. ⚽, Branda V. (A),
88', Angulo C. ↓, Ibarra R. ↑,
88', Carrillo R. ↓, Minda T. ↑,
89', Patta E. 🟨,
90+1', Chere A. ↓, Caicedo E. ↑,
90+6', Mancilla Quinones J. L. ↓, Carabali F. ↑,
90+9', Rodriguez Perlaza J. G. 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: ) and 12 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Libertad won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Libertad could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Libertad won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:11. (average 1.3:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Libertad won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 1.3:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Libertad Loja
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
21.03.26	Delfín - Libertad Loja	0:0 ✺
18.03.26	Libertad Loja - Barcelona Guayaquil	0:0 ✺
13.03.26	Técnico Universitario - Libertad Loja	2:1 ✺
07.03.26	Libertad Loja - LDU Quito	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
04.03.26	Deportivo Cuenca - Libertad Loja	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 TTLWL
- Mushuc Runa
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
22.03.26	Mushuc Runa - Emelec	2:0 ✺
19.03.26	Orense - Mushuc Runa	3:2 ✺
15.03.26	Mushuc Runa - Deportivo Macará	0:0 ✺
07.03.26	Independiente del Valle - Mushuc Runa	3:1 ✺
01.03.26	Mushuc Runa - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
09.08.25	Mushuc Runa - Libertad Loja	1:2
19.04.25	Libertad Loja - Mushuc Runa	2:1
Ecuadorian Copa
26.09.24	Mushuc Runa - Libertad Loja	2:1
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
03.08.24	Libertad Loja - Mushuc Runa	2:2
02.03.24	Mushuc Runa - Libertad Loja	2:1
02.09.23	Libertad Loja - Mushuc Runa	0:1
09.04.23	Mushuc Runa - Libertad Loja	2:1

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