Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 9

Date: 18 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito)

Referee: Miranda K. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Chile	Zapping Sports
Ecuador	Teleamazonas, Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports


	Universidad Católica del Ecuador		Libertad Loja

	1	X	2
	1.37	4.2	8	Watch
	1.33	4.85	7.5
	1.37	4.94	8.51
	1.37	4.76	8.21	Watch
	1.33	4.33	7
	1.41	4.23	8.06	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.36 ↓ (1.46)	4.55 ↑ (4.25)	7.88 ↑ (6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Universidad Católica del Ecuador
67.9%

Draw
20.3%

Libertad Loja
11.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.1%

21.6%

15.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.7%

20.4%

14.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Universidad Católica del Ecuador has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

Libertad Loja has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Universidad Católica del Ecuador than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Libertad Loja than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Libertad Loja Predictions

Users Predictions: Universidad Católica del Ecuador will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Romo R. (G) 29. Anangono G. 33. Canga L. (C) 4. Jhon Chancellor 44. Valencia E. 15. Moreno L. 5. Cacciabue J. 32. Alonso M. 23. Rodriguez A. 30. Mejia E. 7. Fajardo J.	12. Cabezas D. (G) 36. Garcia A. 5. Gruezo C. 6. Caicedo B. 17. Patta E. 7. Zambrano I. (C) 19. Corozo B. 63. Valencia C. 23. Guisamano J. 49. Coronel D. 70. Branda V.
Substitutes
20. Chala J. 28. Diaz M. 12. Lara J. (G) 9. Londono A. 10. Martinez F. 24. Nazareno D. 18. Palacios B. 6. Palacios D. 13. Rose E. 19. Sevillano M. 17. Troya R. 26. Yanez S.	52. Bao A. (G) 27. Bueno S. 9. Caicedo E. 8. Castro S. 33. Chere A. 16. Cifuentes J. 10. Cortez Casierra G. J. 66. Estacio J. (G) 25. Lucas M. 20. Rodriguez Perlaza J. G. 29. Zambrano R.
Coaches
Martinez D.	Leon J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', Fajardo J. (Penalty Awarded),
24', Valencia C. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Gruezo C. ↓, Rodriguez Perlaza J. G. ↑,
57', 1 - 0, Jhon Chancellor ⚽, Mejia E. (A),
58', Alonso M. ↓, Diaz M. ↑,
58', Rodriguez A. ↓, Londono A. ↑,
67', Valencia C. ↓, Caicedo E. ↑,
67', Guisamano J. ↓, Bueno S. ↑,
72', Mejia E. ↓, Rose E. ↑,
72', Fajardo J. ↓, Palacios B. ↑,
79', Coronel D. ↓, Chere A. ↑,
85', 2 - 0, Palacios D. ⚽, Diaz M. (A),
90', Cacciabue J. ↓, Chala J. ↑,
90+2', Caicedo E. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: ) and 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Uni Católica won 0.

Uni Católica is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Libertad is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Libertad may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Uni Católica is the obvious favorite.

We predict that Uni Católica will win today's game, with odds of 1.33.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Uni Católica won 1 match, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:10. (average 1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Uni Católica won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 0.8:1).

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	U. Catolica	31	14	9	8	52:29	23	51

Last Results with these Odds

Universidad Católica del Ecuador - the odds 1.46 are the expected chance of winning is 63.06%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Universidad Católica del Ecuador
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
12.04.26	Técnico Universitario - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	0:2 ✺
08.04.26	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Emelec	1:1 ✺
04.04.26	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Guayaquil City	4:1 ✺
22.03.26	Barcelona Guayaquil - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	1:1 ✺
17.03.26	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Deportivo Cuenca	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WTWTW
- Libertad Loja
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
11.04.26	Orense - Libertad Loja	2:1 ✺
06.04.26	Libertad Loja - Mushuc Runa	2:2 ✺
21.03.26	Delfín - Libertad Loja	0:0 ✺
18.03.26	Libertad Loja - Barcelona Guayaquil	0:0 ✺
13.03.26	Técnico Universitario - Libertad Loja	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LTTTL

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
21.11.25	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Libertad Loja	1:1
19.10.25	Libertad Loja - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	1:1
16.08.25	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Libertad Loja	1:1
28.04.25	Libertad Loja - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	3:1
10.08.24	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Libertad Loja	1:2
11.03.24	Libertad Loja - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	0:1
06.11.23	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Libertad Loja	0:0

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