Match Info

Primera A - Apertura - Round 7

Date: 15 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Cota (Cota)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Mexico	Fanatiz
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	Fanatiz, Fubo Latino 2


	Fortaleza CEIF		Boyacá Chicó

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.4	6.5	Watch
	1.44	4.1	6.75
	1.68	3.45	5.4	Watch
	1.74	3.53	5.75
	1.7	3.35	5.66	Watch
	1.67	3.3	5
	1.68	3.4	5.45	Watch
	1.63	3.5	5.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↑ (1.4)	3.5 ↓ (4.16)	5.78 ↓ (8.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fortaleza CEIF
57%

Draw
26.8%

Boyacá Chicó
16.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.7%

22.5%

10.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.7%

17.1%

14.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fortaleza CEIF has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Fortaleza CEIF's form might have worsened.

Boyacá Chicó has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Boyacá Chicó's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fortaleza CEIF than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Fortaleza CEIF that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Boyacá Chicó than the current prediction. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	12.5%	0%

Fortaleza CEIF - Boyacá Chicó Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Fortaleza (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Boyacá Chicó (2.05) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Fortaleza CEIF will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Fortaleza (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Boyacá Chicó (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Silva M. (G) 16. Cajares J. 6. Diaz Y. 18. Balanta J. 15. Cuero S. 14. Pico L. 8. Navarro S. 17. Balanta Carabali K. A. 11. Amaya A. 26. Rivas Torres R. D. 33. Arroyo A.	23. Denis D. (G) 17. Caicedo O. 2. Saldana A. 24. Banguero A. 3. Quiceno J. 7. Montano I. 28. Diaz J. 10. Mena J. 18. Cabrera Y. 20. Valencia N. 6. Aedo A.
Substitutes
7. Martinez J. 5. Medina Obando J. 20. Orozco C. 22. Palacios S. 19. Pulicastro F. 3. Ramirez D. 12. Santander C. (G) 23. Sinisterra J. 10. Velasquez J.	5. Arroyo F. 1. Caicedo Vasquez R. A. (G) 14. Campo Chara J. A. 19. Castillo J. 13. Martinez Y. 11. Ramirez Raigosa D. A. 8. Salazar S.
Coaches
Oliveros S.	Torres F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
2', 1 - 0, Arroyo A. ⚽, Rivas Torres R. D. (A),
20', 1 - 1, Montano I. ⚽, Aedo A. (A),
25', Aedo A. 🟨,
32', Mena J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
67', Amaya A. ↓, Sinisterra J. ↑,
67', Cajares J. ↓, Martinez J. ↑,
71', Mena J. ↓, Ramirez Raigosa D. A. ↑,
71', Navarro S. ↓, Velasquez J. ↑,
79', Rivas Torres R. D. ↓, Palacios S. ↑,
81', Cabrera Y. ↓, Castillo J. ↑,
88', 2 - 1, Arroyo A. ⚽, Sinisterra J. (A),
90', Banguero A. 🟨,
90+2', Diaz Y. 🟨,
90+6', Silva M. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 14 and 17).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 2.

In recent matches, Fortaleza has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Boyacá Chicó is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Fortaleza is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:5. (average 0.8:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Fortaleza won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 0.6:0.6).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Chico	11	3	3	5	10:18	-8	12
16	Fortaleza	13	1	8	4	14:19	-5	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fortaleza CEIF
Colombian Primera A
12.02.26	Atlético Nacional - Fortaleza CEIF	4:1 ✺
07.02.26	Fortaleza CEIF - Independiente Santa Fe	1:1 ✺
31.01.26	Cúcuta Deportivo - Fortaleza CEIF	1:1 ✺
27.01.26	Fortaleza CEIF - Llaneros SA	1:1 ✺
24.01.26	Deportivo Pereira - Fortaleza CEIF	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LTTTT
- Boyacá Chicó
Colombian Primera A
12.02.26	Boyacá Chicó - Jaguares de Córdoba	5:0 ✺
07.02.26	Junior Barranquilla - Boyacá Chicó	3:0 ✺
31.01.26	Boyacá Chicó - Independiente Santa Fe	0:1 ✺
28.01.26	Alianza Valledupar - Boyacá Chicó	1:1 ✺
24.01.26	Boyacá Chicó - América de Cali	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
13.10.25	Fortaleza CEIF - Boyacá Chicó	1:0
21.04.25	Boyacá Chicó - Fortaleza CEIF	0:2
31.08.24	Boyacá Chicó - Fortaleza CEIF	2:2
23.02.24	Fortaleza CEIF - Boyacá Chicó	1:1
Colombian Primera B
28.10.22	Fortaleza CEIF - Boyacá Chicó	0:2
24.10.22	Boyacá Chicó - Fortaleza CEIF	0:0
23.09.22	Boyacá Chicó - Fortaleza CEIF	0:0

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