Match Info

COLOMBIA: Primera A - Apertura - Round 9

Date: 14 March 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Departamental Libertad (Pasto)

Referee: Mayorga Londono J. A. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Mexico	VIX+, ViX Premium
South-america	ViX Latin America


	Deportivo Pasto		Deportivo La Equidad

	1	X	2
	2.25	2.88	3.7	Watch
	2.15	2.85	3.5
	2.25	2.9	3.7	Watch
	2.46	2.87	3.4
	2.23	2.86	3.74	Watch
	2.25	2.8	3.6
	2.19	2.96	3.69	Watch
	2.25	2.9	3.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↑ (2.08)	2.88 ↓ (2.98)	3.63 ↓ (4.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Pasto
41.6%

Draw
32.6%

Deportivo La Equidad
25.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.2%

31.6%

23.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.1%

31.7%

23.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Pasto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

Deportivo La Equidad has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Pasto than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo La Equidad than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

Deportivo Pasto - Deportivo La Equidad Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Deportivo Pasto will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Deportivo Pasto: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Martinez D. (C) 24. Alarcon A. 23. Rios J. 22. Alba I. 17. Jaramillo F. 20. Castano M. 4. Caicedo L. 13. Castilla J. 77. Bone F. 70. Quinones D. 19. Castillo D.	1. Varela C. (G) 4. Tegue G. 24. Montano B. 2. Polanco D. 3. Correa A. (C) 13. Abonia Y. 6. Orozco S. 14. Acosta F. 16. Mayo S. 7. Del Valle A. 9. Renan Oliveira
Substitutes
31. Arboleda Y. 12. Cabezas V. (G) 16. Campana J. 2. Carabali B. 29. Charrupi G. 27. Morinigo N. 11. Vanegas R.	30. Agron B. 33. Copete D. 10. Cruz W. 18. Paternina C. 12. Perez A. (G) 29. Riascos L. 8. Tamara S.
Coaches
Ayala C.	Bodmer J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Bone F. ⚽,
16', Montano B. 🟨,
31', 2 - 0, Castilla J. ⚽,
37', Orozco S. ↓, Copete D. ↑,
37', Renan Oliveira 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
60', Renan Oliveira ↓, Paternina C. ↑,
68', Castillo D. ↓, Morinigo N. ↑,
70', Acosta F. 🟨,
76', Quinones D. ↓, Charrupi G. ↑,
79', Abonia Y. ↓, Riascos L. ↑,
80', Paternina C. ↓, Tamara S. ↑,
80', Bone F. ↓, Vanegas R. ↑,
80', Copete D. ↓, Cruz W. ↑,
80', Castilla J. ↓, Carabali B. ↑,
88', Carabali B. 🟨,
90+3', 2 - 1, Riascos L. ⚽,

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Quadrangular: ) and 20).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Deportivo Pasto won 1.

Deportivo Pasto is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

La Equidad is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Deportivo Pasto will have a poor advantage in this game.

Our prediction for today's Deportivo Pasto to win the game is with odds 2.25.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Deportivo Pasto won 3 matches, drawn 10 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 23:27 (average 1.2:1.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Deportivo Pasto won 1 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 11:13 (average 1.1:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Pasto
Colombian Primera A
08.03.25	Deportivo Pasto - Llaneros SA	1:0 ✺
03.03.25	Independiente Medellín - Deportivo Pasto	1:0 ✺
25.02.25	Deportivo Pasto - Unión Magdalena	2:1 ✺
17.02.25	Envigado - Deportivo Pasto	0:1 ✺
12.02.25	Deportivo Pasto - Boyacá Chicó	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WLWWW
- Deportivo La Equidad
Colombian Primera A
08.03.25	Deportivo La Equidad - Independiente Medellín	0:0 ✺
04.03.25	Llaneros SA - Deportivo La Equidad	1:0 ✺
21.02.25	Deportivo La Equidad - Boyacá Chicó	0:1 ✺
16.02.25	Unión Magdalena - Deportivo La Equidad	0:0 ✺
13.02.25	Deportivo La Equidad - Envigado	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 TLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
11.11.24	Deportivo La Equidad - Deportivo Pasto	2:2
22.04.24	Deportivo Pasto - Deportivo La Equidad	2:3
08.10.23	Deportivo La Equidad - Deportivo Pasto	1:0
25.04.23	Deportivo Pasto - Deportivo La Equidad	1:1
21.09.22	Deportivo La Equidad - Deportivo Pasto	2:3
28.03.22	Deportivo Pasto - Deportivo La Equidad	1:1
27.07.21	Deportivo La Equidad - Deportivo Pasto	0:0

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