Match Info

Primera A - Clausura - Round 13

Date: 4 October 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Departamental Libertad (Pasto)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belarus	Sport TV
Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	Fanatiz, FOX Deportes, FOX Deportes, Fubo Latino 2, Fubo Latino


	Deportivo Pasto		Fortaleza CEIF

	1	X	2
	2.00	3.20	4.00	Watch
	2.00	3.20	3.50
	2.14	3.30	3.40	Watch
	2.09	3.10	4.21
	2.18	3.16	3.47	Watch
	2.04	3.05	4.15
	2.04	3.26	4.08	Watch
	2.01	3.15	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↓ (2.35)	3.18 ↓ (3.2)	3.82 ↑ (3.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Pasto
45.7%

Draw
29.7%

Fortaleza CEIF
24.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.1%

29.5%

30.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.2%

29.4%

30.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Pasto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Deportivo Pasto's performance.

Fortaleza CEIF has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Fortaleza CEIF might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Pasto than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Deportivo Pasto that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza CEIF than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Fortaleza CEIF could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	14.3%	0%

Deportivo Pasto - Fortaleza CEIF Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Deportivo Pasto will win (votes: 6 - 85.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Banguera G. (G) 33. Garavito M. 2. Torijano F. (C) 5. Gil N. 27. Goyes H. 7. Perlaza J. 8. Serje Orozco E. C. 25. Leys F. 10. Chavez D. 18. Micolta Piedahita J. 19. Preciado P.	1. Barlasina W. (G) 16. Cajares J. 5. Medina Obando J. 6. Diaz Y. (C) 15. Cuero S. 28. Vivas S. 13. Mejia B. 8. Navarro S. 32. Vazquez M. 9. Herrera J. 25. Garcia J.
Substitutes
28. Blandon T. 1. Cabezas Quinonez E. A. (G) 11. Ibarguen A. 15. Mancilla H. 17. Mendez J. 21. Osede D. 32. Pisano M. 3. Rios J. 24. Santacruz K.	17. Balanta Carabali K. A. 4. Cabezas E. 2. Copete A. 7. Montano I. 14. Pico L. 19. Pulicastro F. 24. Salas J. 12. Santander C. (G) 27. Sinisterra J.
Coaches
Rosero J.	Arias D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Preciado P. ↓, Pisano M. ↑,
46', Mejia B. ↓, Pico L. ↑,
57', Vazquez M. ↓, Salas J. ↑,
62', Serje Orozco E. C. 🟨,
67', Serje Orozco E. C. ↓, Blandon T. ↑,
69', Garavito M. 🟨,
77', Medina Obando J. 🟨,
78', Garcia J. ↓, Montano I. ↑,
78', Chavez D. ↓, Mancilla H. ↑,
78', Perlaza J. ↓, Santacruz K. ↑,
85', Vivas S. ↓, Pulicastro F. ↑,
85', Navarro S. ↓, Balanta Carabali K. A. ↑,
90+4', Mancilla H. 🟨,

Preview

A dramatic battle between two struggling sides fighting for survival points (ranked 19th and 17th).

Deportivo Pasto has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Fortaleza is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Fortaleza may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Deportivo Pasto is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Deportivo Pasto has recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 4:3 (averaging 0.8:0.6 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Deportivo Pasto against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 2:0 goals (averaging 1:0 per game).

Outrights of Colombian Primera A for now

Dep. Pasto: 0.79%

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
16	Fortaleza	12	1	7	4	13:18	-5	10
18	Dep. Pasto	12	2	3	7	9:18	-9	9

Last Results with these Odds

Fortaleza CEIF - the odds 3.1 are the expected chance of winning is 30.41%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Pasto
Colombian Primera A
25.09.26	Boyacá Chicó - Deportivo Pasto	3:0 ✺
19.09.26	Deportivo Pasto - Once Caldas	1:0 ✺
14.09.26	América de Cali - Deportivo Pasto	0:1 ✺
Colombian Copa
09.09.26	Deportivo Pasto - Independiente Medellín	1:4 ✺
Colombian Primera A
05.09.26	Cúcuta Deportivo - Deportivo Pasto	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23 LWWLT
- Fortaleza CEIF
Colombian Primera A
27.09.26	Fortaleza CEIF - Deportes Tolima	2:2 ✺
20.09.26	Fortaleza CEIF - Junior Barranquilla	1:4 ✺
11.09.26	Jaguares de Córdoba - Fortaleza CEIF	2:2 ✺
05.09.26	Independiente Santa Fe - Fortaleza CEIF	2:2 ✺
01.09.26	Fortaleza CEIF - Once Caldas	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 TLTTL

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
24.03.26	Fortaleza CEIF - Deportivo Pasto	1:2
24.10.25	Fortaleza CEIF - Deportivo Pasto	2:0
04.05.25	Deportivo Pasto - Fortaleza CEIF	1:0
14.09.24	Fortaleza CEIF - Deportivo Pasto	0:0
04.03.24	Deportivo Pasto - Fortaleza CEIF	1:0

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