Match Info

COLOMBIA: Primera A - Clausura - Round 19

Date: 14 November 2024, Thursday

Location: Estadio Departamental Libertad (Pasto)

Referee: Betancur Gutierrez C. A. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	VIX+, ViX Premium


	Deportivo Pasto		Patriotas

	1	X	2
	1.33	4.5	12	Watch
	1.31	4.5	9.5
	1.3	5	11	Watch
	1.3	4.8	10.61
	1.35	4.41	10.13
	1.25	4.6	12
	1.32	4.7	10.6	Watch
	1.3	5	11
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.31 ↓ (1.46)	4.69 ↑ (4.05)	10.86 ↑ (6.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Pasto
71.5%

Draw
19.9%

Patriotas
8.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.4%

22.9%

13.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66%

22%

13.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Pasto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Deportivo Pasto's performance.

Patriotas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Pasto than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Deportivo Pasto that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Patriotas than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Deportivo Pasto - Patriotas Predictions

Users Predictions: Deportivo Pasto will win (10 of 10 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Martinez D. (G) 2. Carabali B. 3. Cuenu J. 5. Gil N. 7. Londono K. 22. Alba I. 23. Arrieta C. 13. Castilla J. 32. Mafla C. 11. Moreno D. 17. Chavez D.	32. Valencia J. (G) 21. Guerrero J. 4. Alarcon A. 28. Garcia J. 25. De Las Salas C. 30. Paternina C. 22. Londono F. 8. Caicedo J. 27. Melendez A. 20. Ruiz D. 19. Martinez C.
Substitutes
10. Campana J. 6. Charrupi G. 34. Espindola M. (G) 28. Mejia V. 77. Santiago Trellez 9. Torres G. 37. Vanegas R.	13. Aristizabal Juan 16. Correa B. 14. De La Cruz Mangas J. 11. Gomez M. 7. Moreno S. 1. Roman S. (G) 10. Viveros J.
Coaches
Florentin G.	Perez D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
21', 1 - 0, Alba I. ⚽, Londono K. (A),
30', 2 - 0, Moreno D. (Pen),
31', Moreno D. 🟨,
44', 2 - 1, Londono F. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
56', Guerrero J. ↓, Aristizabal Juan ↑,
59', Victoria Palacios D. S. 🟨,
64', Arrieta C. ↓, Mejia V. ↑,
68', 3 - 1, Moreno D. ⚽,
71', Paternina C. ↓, Moreno S. ↑,
71', Londono F. ↓, Gomez M. ↑,
75', Moreno D. ↓, Santiago Trellez ↑,
84', Victoria Palacios D. S. ↓, De La Cruz Mangas J. ↑,
84', Martinez C. ↓, Charris C. ↑,
84', Chavez D. ↓, Campana J. ↑,
84', Castilla J. ↓, Charrupi G. ↑,
90', Cuenu J. 🟨,
90+2', De Las Salas C. 🟨,
90+5', 3 - 2, Alarcon A. ⚽,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Deportivo Pasto won 2.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Deportivo Pasto could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Deportivo Pasto is certain favorite.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Deportivo Pasto won 6 matches, drawn 9 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 28:22 (average 1.4:1.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Deportivo Pasto won 4 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 17:11 (average 1.9:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Pasto
Colombian Primera A
11.11.24	Deportivo La Equidad - Deportivo Pasto	2:2 ✺
07.11.24	Deportivo Pasto - América de Cali	3:1 ✺
03.11.24	Millonarios - Deportivo Pasto	1:0 ✺
29.10.24	Deportivo Pasto - Rionegro Águilas	3:1 ✺
Colombian Copa
24.10.24	Atlético Bucaramanga - Deportivo Pasto	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 TWLWT
- Patriotas FC
Colombian Primera A
10.11.24	Patriotas - Deportes Tolima	2:1 ✺
06.11.24	Independiente Medellín - Patriotas	3:0 ✺
03.11.24	Patriotas - Boyacá Chicó	3:0 ✺
26.10.24	Alianza Valledupar - Patriotas	1:1 ✺
14.10.24	Patriotas - Independiente Santa Fe	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 WLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
28.04.24	Patriotas - Deportivo Pasto	0:3
11.10.22	Patriotas - Deportivo Pasto	1:1
26.04.22	Deportivo Pasto - Patriotas	0:0
29.08.21	Patriotas - Deportivo Pasto	0:0
25.03.21	Deportivo Pasto - Patriotas	1:0
14.10.20	Patriotas - Deportivo Pasto	1:1
19.10.19	Patriotas - Deportivo Pasto	1:0

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