Match Info

Liga Profesional - Apertura - Round 16

Date: 24 April 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Guillermo Laza (Buenos Aires)

Referee: Lobo Medina L. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN Premium
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Inter
World	TyC Sports Internacional


	Deportivo Riestra		Independiente

	1	X	2
	3.7	2.85	2.2
	3.6	2.8	2.25
	3.65	2.8	2.3
	4.04	2.8	2.33
	4	2.66	2.34	Watch
	3.75	2.63	2.2
	3.88	2.71	2.27	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.8 ↑ (3.63)	2.75 ↓ (2.91)	2.27 ↓ (2.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Riestra
24.6%

Draw
34.1%

Independiente
41.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26%

32.5%

41.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.9%

32.3%

41.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Riestra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Independiente has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Riestra than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	77.8%	22.2%

Deportivo Riestra - Independiente Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Independiente will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 64.6% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Arce I. (G) 24. Mino F. 19. Randazzo J. 22. Paz C. 36. Bracamonte M. 14. Monje P. 27. Goitia J. 5. Ramirez P. 9. Herrera J. (C) 7. Alonso A. 31. Smarra M.	33. Rey R. (C) 4. Arias S. 26. Lomonaco K. 36. Valdez S. 22. Zabala F. 16. Perez Curci M. 23. Marcone I. 28. Gutierrez M. 7. Montiel S. 19. Abaldo M. 9. Avalos G.
Substitutes
39. Duarte L. 32. Flores G. 13. Gallo R. 21. Ingratti J. 12. Lopez I. (G) 25. Madero P. 11. Nsumoh J. 40. Obredor G. 45. Perez B. 28. Sayavedra R. 35. Stringa A. 16. Watson N.	1. Blazquez J. (G) 10. Cabral L. 13. Fedorco J. 6. Freire N. 29. Godoy L. 11. Mancuello F. 8. Millan L. 25. Pussetto I. 5. Rodrigo Fernandez 34. Tempone F. 43. Valdez F. 3. Valenzuela M.
Coaches
Benitez G.	Quinteros G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
4', Ramirez P. 🟨,
13', 1 - 0, Bracamonte M. ⚽,
18', Perez Curci M. 🟨,
41', Randazzo J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
49', Goitia J. 🟨,
63', Marcone I. 🟨,
66', Montiel S. ↓, Tempone F. ↑,
66', Perez Curci M. ↓, Millan L. ↑,
68', Bracamonte M. ↓, Watson N. ↑,
68', Herrera J. 🟨,
68', Herrera J. ↓, Obredor G. ↑,
80', 2 - 0, Ramirez P. ⚽,
83', Ramirez P. ↓, Sayavedra R. ↑,
83', Smarra M. ↓, Flores G. ↑,
85', Zabala F. 🟨,
85', Flores G. 🟨,
87', Abaldo M. ↓, Valdez F. ↑,
87', Zabala F. ↓, Valenzuela M. ↑,
90+2', Alonso A. ↓, Stringa A. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 15 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

Deportivo Riestra has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Independiente is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Deportivo Riestra may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Independiente has had a series of home games.

Independiente might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Deportivo Riestra: Bracamonte M. (Injury) Goitia J. (Inactive) Tovo E. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Independiente: Bodnar S. (Inactive) Pussetto I. (Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Riestra won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:4. (average 0.5:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Deportivo Riestra won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Independiente - the odds 2.28 are the expected chance of winning is 41.47%, but this team recently wins 27% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Riestra
Argentinian Liga Profesional
19.04.26	Talleres de Córdoba - Deportivo Riestra	2:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
14.04.26	Grêmio - Deportivo Riestra	1:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
11.04.26	Deportivo Riestra - Instituto Córdoba	0:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
08.04.26	Deportivo Riestra - Palestino	0:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
03.04.26	Unión Santa Fe - Deportivo Riestra	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLTL
- CA Independiente
Argentinian Liga Profesional
18.04.26	Independiente - Defensa y Justicia	3:1 ✺
11.04.26	Boca Juniors - Independiente	1:1 ✺
04.04.26	Independiente - Racing	1:0 ✺
Copa Argentina
27.03.26	Independiente - Atenas Río Cuarto	4:2 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
21.03.26	Independiente - Talleres de Córdoba	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
10.11.25	Deportivo Riestra - Independiente	0:1
27.04.25	Independiente - Deportivo Riestra	0:0
06.10.24	Independiente - Deportivo Riestra	3:1
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
15.03.24	Deportivo Riestra - Independiente	1:0

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