Match Info

Liga Nacional - Clausura - Round 21

Date: 23 April 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Los Cuchumatanes (Huehuetenango)

Where to Watch on TV:


Guatemala	Tigo Sports
South-america	ViX Latin America


	Deportivo Xinabajul		Deportivo Guastatoya

	1	X	2
	2.2	3	2.9
	2.22	3.05	3.1
	2.27	3.05	3.3
	2.3	3.07	3.28	Watch
	2	3.6	3.5
	2.2	3.04	3.17
	2.22	3.05	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↓ (2.31)	3.12 ↓ (3.24)	3.19 ↑ (2.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Xinabajul
41.8%

Draw
29.4%

Deportivo Guastatoya
28.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.5%

28.2%

32.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.5%

28.9%

31.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Xinabajul has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Deportivo Guastatoya has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Xinabajul than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Guastatoya than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Deportivo Xinabajul - Deportivo Guastatoya Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Xinabajul (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Guastatoya (1.61) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Xinabajul (votes: 1 - 50%). Guastatoya (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Moreno Alfaro J. E. (G) 88. Alvarado C. 17. Aquino D. 20. Baltazar Y. 10. Chavasco G. 32. Gonzalez F. 70. Hernandez Y. 6. Marroquin E. 8. Ubico J. 2. Velasquez K. 23. Yori E.	1. de Lemos A. (G) 70. Acuna I. . Aguilar Y. 17. Almanza J. 26. Escobar J. 13. Garcia W. 21. Hernandez 4. Morales B. 7. Morales H. 12. Ramirez K. G. A. 14. Ruiz A.
Substitutes
21. Amaral U. 7. Ceballos M. 4. Cifuentes A. 26. Elington E. 18. Jucup N. 29. Lopez D. 13. Mendoza O. (G) 5. Vasquez E. 11. Zuniga E.	25. Arboine K. 19. Betancourth R. 98. Cifuentes J. (G) 6. Estrada J. 27. Garcia N. 5. Garrido S. 15. Lon A. 16. Morales R. 20. Quinonez A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
6', Velasquez K. 🟨,
20', Hernandez 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Ramirez K. G. A. ↓, Garcia N. ↑,
56', Ubico J. 🟨,
58', Marroquin E. ↓, Zuniga E. ↑,
65', Acuna I. ↓, Betancourth R. ↑,
66', Aguilar Y. ↓, Arboine K. ↑,
71', Ruiz A. ↓, Lon A. ↑,
71', Chavasco G. ↓, Ceballos M. ↑,
71', Hernandez Y. ↓, Jucup N. ↑,
72', Alvarado C. 🟨,
83', Almanza J. ↓, Estrada J. ↑,
84', Aquino D. ↓, Amaral U. ↑,
84', Alvarado C. ↓, Vasquez E. ↑,
86', 0 - 1, Betancourth R. (Pen),
90+4', 1 - 1, Gonzalez F. ⚽,

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 11 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Nacional (Clausura ~ Play Offs: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Xinabajul won 3.

Xinabajul is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Guastatoya is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Xinabajul could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Xinabajul will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Xinabajul won 6 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 13:14 (average 1.2:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Xinabajul won 5 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 9:1 (average 1.8:0.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Xinabajul
Guatemala Liga Nacional
20.04.25	Deportivo Mixco - Deportivo Xinabajul	3:1 ✺
16.04.25	Deportivo Xinabajul - Antigua GFC	0:0 ✺
13.04.25	Deportivo Xinabajul - Malacateco	1:1 ✺
09.04.25	Municipal - Deportivo Xinabajul	2:1 ✺
06.04.25	Deportivo Xinabajul - Xelajú	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LTTLT
- Deportivo Guastatoya
Guatemala Liga Nacional
17.04.25	Municipal - Deportivo Guastatoya	1:0 ✺
13.04.25	Deportivo Guastatoya - Xelajú	2:2 ✺
09.04.25	Deportivo Achuapa - Deportivo Guastatoya	1:2 ✺
02.04.25	Cobán Imperial - Deportivo Guastatoya	0:0 ✺
29.03.25	Deportivo Guastatoya - Marquense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 LTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Guatemala Liga Nacional
23.02.25	Deportivo Guastatoya - Deportivo Xinabajul	1:2
03.11.24	Deportivo Guastatoya - Deportivo Xinabajul	5:1
18.08.24	Deportivo Xinabajul - Deportivo Guastatoya	1:0
23.03.24	Deportivo Xinabajul - Deportivo Guastatoya	3:1
18.11.23	Deportivo Guastatoya - Deportivo Xinabajul	0:0
13.05.23	Deportivo Xinabajul - Deportivo Guastatoya	1:0
10.05.23	Deportivo Guastatoya - Deportivo Xinabajul	2:0

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