The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Municipal 68.9%
Draw 20.4%
Deportivo Guastatoya 10.7%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
65.7%
21.6%
12.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
62.7%
20.6%
13.3%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Municipal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)
Deportivo Guastatoya has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Municipal than the current prediction. (-6.2%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Municipal that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Guastatoya than the current prediction. (+2.6%)
Municipal - Deportivo Guastatoya Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Linares B. (G) 10. Altan P. 52. David A. 14. Franco J. 32. Lopez E. 9. Martinez J. 3. Mena J. 16. Morales J. 7. Munoz R. 43. Perez Y. Y. 4. Samayoa N.
1. Escobar R. (G) 7. Almanza J. 88. Alvarado C. 22. Avalos V. 33. Contreras A. 14. Estrada J. 32. Lemus B. 17. Lon A. 15. Morales H. 10. Sequen M. 44. Yori E.
Substitutes
20. Archila C. 11. Bantes J. 26. Barrientos R. 31. Calderon C. 13. Estrada C. 19. Hernandez C. 92. Mendez J. 12. Navarro K. (G) 8. Saravia R.
8. Aguilar Y. 23. Armas V. 19. Garrido S. 30. Hernandez B. (G) 4. Morales B. 35. Palencia E. 25. Pineda W. 20. Snaider M. 13. Tejeda A.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 1)
1', David A. 🟨,
12', 1 - 0, Mena J. ⚽,
18', Alvarado C. 🟨,
35', 1 - 1, Alvarado C. ⚽,
37', Yori E. 🟨,
42', Almanza J. 🟨,
43', Franco J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Franco J. ↓, Hernandez C. ↑,
46', Alvarado C. ↓, Pineda W. ↑,
55', Lon A. 🟨,
59', Munoz R. ↓, Mendez J. ↑,
70', Altan P. ↓, Archila C. ↑,
70', Lopez E. ↓, Bantes J. ↑,
76', Avalos V. ↓, Tejeda A. ↑,
79', Tejeda A. 🟨,
79', Perez Y. Y. 🟨,
83', Lon A. ↓, Palencia E. ↑,
83', Sequen M. ↓, Morales B. ↑,
89', 🟨,
Preview
A high-stakes showdown between two teams from the upper tier of the standings (ranked 3rd in the Promotion - Liga Nacional (Apertura - Playoffs - Quarter - finals) and 2nd in the Promotion - Liga Nacional (Apertura - Playoffs - Semi - finals)).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Municipal won 3.
Municipal has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 1 win).
Guastatoya is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
Municipal may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.
The betting markets point to Municipal as the clear and undisputed favorite.
In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Municipal has recorded 12 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 31:14 (averaging 1.6:0.7 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Municipal against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with 15:4 goals (averaging 1.7:0.4 per game).
Mexico
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Linares B. (G) 
David A. 
Lopez E. 
Mena J. 
Perez Y. Y. 
Almanza J. 
Yori E. 
Snaider M. 
Tejeda A. 
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