Match Info

GUATEMALA: Liga Nacional - Clausura - Round 12

Date: 5 March 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Los Cuchumatanes (Huehuetenango)

Where to Watch on TV:


Guatemala	Tigo Sports
South-america	ViX Latin America


	Deportivo Xinabajul		Marquense

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.2	3.8
	2.02	3.2	3.45
	2	3.14	3.95
	2.02	3.27	3.8	Watch
	1.91	3.1	4
	1.89	3.38	4.09	Watch
	2.02	3.2	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↓ (2.4)	3.21 ↓ (3.24)	3.79 ↑ (2.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Xinabajul
47.1%

Draw
28.7%

Marquense
24.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38%

28.2%

33.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.4%

29.2%

32.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Xinabajul has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Deportivo Xinabajul's performance.

Marquense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Marquense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Xinabajul than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Deportivo Xinabajul that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marquense than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Marquense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Deportivo Xinabajul - Marquense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Moreno Alfaro J. E. (G) 88. Alvarado C. 17. Aquino D. 20. Baltazar Y. 7. Ceballos M. 4. Cifuentes A. 32. Gonzalez F. 70. Hernandez Y. 18. Jucup N. 8. Ubico J. 23. Yori E.	31. Marroquin A. (G) 80. Amaya W. 2. Barrios W. 13. Estrada C. 10. Flores D. 79. Linton O. 18. Merida K. 17. Oliva Calito J. J. 8. Rocha K. 27. Rodas I. 99. Rodas M.
Substitutes
21. Amaral U. 44. Del Valle Tello E. J. 33. Diaz D. 3. Gomez F. 6. Marroquin E. 13. Mendoza O. (G) 22. Sanchez J. 15. Trigueros W. 11. Zuniga E.	77. Alonzo D. 7. de Leon F. 20. de Leon Wug F. 3. Fuentes F. 22. Guerra J. 16. Morales A. 9. Ortiz J. 91. Pineda K. 1. Silva D. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
14', 1 - 0, Hernandez Y. ⚽,
28', Yori E. 🟨,
45', Rodas M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Rodas I. ↓, Ortiz J. ↑,
46', Merida K. ↓, de Leon F. ↑,
67', Rocha K. 🟨,
73', Estrada C. 🟥,
78', 2 - 0, Aquino D. ⚽,
79', Rocha K. ↓, Pineda K. ↑,
80', Gonzalez F. ↓, Zuniga E. ↑,
80', Aquino D. ↓, Amaral U. ↑,
80', Flores D. ↓, de Leon Wug F. ↑,
84', Ceballos M. 🟨,
84', Oliva Calito J. J. ↓, Alonzo D. ↑,

Preview

An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 11 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Nacional (Clausura ~ Play Offs: )).

Xinabajul is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Marquense is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Xinabajul won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3:2 (average 1.5:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Xinabajul won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Xinabajul
Guatemala Liga Nacional
02.03.25	Deportivo Xinabajul - Comunicaciones	0:1 ✺
23.02.25	Deportivo Guastatoya - Deportivo Xinabajul	1:2 ✺
16.02.25	Deportivo Xinabajul - Deportivo Mixco	1:2 ✺
12.02.25	Antigua GFC - Deportivo Xinabajul	6:0 ✺
09.02.25	Malacateco - Deportivo Xinabajul	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 LWLLL
- Marquense
Guatemala Liga Nacional
02.03.25	Malacateco - Marquense	1:0 ✺
23.02.25	Marquense - Municipal	0:0 ✺
16.02.25	Xelajú - Marquense	0:0 ✺
13.02.25	Marquense - Deportivo Achuapa	2:1 ✺
06.02.25	Marquense - Cobán Imperial	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 LTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Guatemala Liga Nacional
18.01.25	Marquense - Deportivo Xinabajul	2:0
29.09.24	Deportivo Xinabajul - Marquense	3:0

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