Match Info

Liga Nacional - Clausura - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Mario Camposeco (Quetzaltenango)

Where to Watch on TV:


Guatemala	Tigo Sports
South-america	ViX Latin America


	Xelajú		Marquense

	1	X	2
	1.24	5.25	9.5
	1.23	5.15	9.6
	1.24	5.48	11.68
	1.25	5.39	11.64	Watch
	1.25	4.8	11
	1.22	5.15	11.5	Watch
	1.44	3.75	6.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.27 ↓ (1.44)	5 ↑ (3.75)	10.15 ↑ (6.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Xelajú
72.5%

Draw
18.4%

Marquense
9.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.7%

23.7%

14.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.4%

22.4%

13.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Xelajú has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Xelajú's performance.

Marquense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Marquense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Xelajú than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Xelajú that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marquense than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Xelajú - Marquense Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Xelajú will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Xelajú (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

1X2, 1st Half - Xelajú (1.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Xelajú (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
. Chang E. (G) 52. Aparicio J. 23. Calderon R. 11. Cardenas S. 16. Cardona J. 18. Castaneda J. 7. Diaz Y. 14. Gonzalez J. 70. Jaen Y. 30. Romero M. 13. Tebalan W.	1. Colli J. (G) 80. Amaya W. 5. Cano J. 29. Casas D. 17. Chuc D. 13. Estrada C. 70. Flores D. 3. Fuentes F. 79. Linton O. 99. Rodas M. 53. Villalobos J.
Substitutes
26. Cardoza E. . de Leon O. . Escobar J. 77. Longo J. 24. Marquez R. 17. Ochaeta D.	7. Ceballos M. 20. Elington E. 10. Escobar M. 19. Joj J. 26. Mencia R. 11. Navarro A. 14. Ruiz A. 52. Sosa M. (G) 2. Vasquez E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
8', Rodas M. 🟨,
13', Cardenas S. 🟨,
20', 1 - 0, Cardenas S. ⚽,
23', Castaneda J. 🟨,
30', 2 - 0, Jaen Y. ⚽,
32', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
55', Villalobos J. ↓, Elington E. ↑,
57', Linton O. 🟨,
63', Fuentes F. 🟨,
64', Cano J. ↓, Ruiz A. ↑,
65', Flores D. ↓, Escobar M. ↑,
65', Castaneda J. ↓, Ochaeta D. ↑,
67', Chang E. 🟨,
72', Aparicio J. 🟨,
72', Estrada C. 🟨,
73', Cardenas S. ↓, Escobar J. ↑,
75', Ruiz A. 🟨,
76', Elington E. 🟥,
81', Escobar J. 🟨,
85', Jaen Y. ↓, Marquez R. ↑,
85', Diaz Y. ↓, Longo J. ↑,

Preview

First leg result: 1-1. Second leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Xelajú won 2.

Xelajú is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Marquense has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Xelajú may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Xelajú is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Xelajú won 11 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 29:20. (average 1.5:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Xelajú won 9 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 20:8. (average 2:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Marquense	12	6	1	5	13:15	-2	19
5	Xelaju	12	5	3	4	24:14	10	18

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Club Xelajú
Guatemala Liga Nacional
30.04.26	Marquense - Xelajú	1:1 ✺
26.04.26	Xelajú - Cobán Imperial	2:1 ✺
19.04.26	Mictlán - Xelajú	2:3 ✺
16.04.26	Xelajú - Deportivo Achuapa	3:0 ✺
11.04.26	Deportivo Mixco - Xelajú	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 TWWWL
- Marquense
Guatemala Liga Nacional
30.04.26	Marquense - Xelajú	1:1 ✺
26.04.26	Deportivo Guastatoya - Marquense	4:0 ✺
18.04.26	Marquense - Municipal	1:3 ✺
15.04.26	Aurora - Marquense	0:1 ✺
11.04.26	Marquense - Mictlán	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 TLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Guatemala Liga Nacional
30.04.26	Marquense - Xelajú	1:1
01.04.26	Marquense - Xelajú	1:0
15.02.26	Xelajú - Marquense	4:2
05.11.25	Marquense - Xelajú	1:0
31.08.25	Xelajú - Marquense	3:1
20.04.25	Marquense - Xelajú	1:0
16.02.25	Xelajú - Marquense	0:0

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