Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Quarter-finals

Date: 23 July 2026, Thursday

Location: Mikheil Meskhi Stadium (Tbilisi)

Referee: Hensgens R. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Georgia	1TV
Lithuania	TV3


	Dinamo Tbilisi		Žalgiris

	1	X	2
	2.10	3.20	3.00	Watch
	2.10	3.10	3.25
	2.07	3.10	3.60	Watch
	2.16	3.27	3.40
	2.18	3.38	3.18	Watch
	2.07	3.20	3.30
	2.18	3.30	3.45	Watch
	2.20	3.15	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↑ (1.69)	3.21 ↓ (3.5)	3.3 ↓ (4.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dinamo Tbilisi
43.3%

Draw
28.7%

Žalgiris
28%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

54.5%

26.3%

19.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.8%

27.9%

18.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dinamo Tbilisi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Dinamo Tbilisi's form might have worsened.

Žalgiris has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Žalgiris's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dinamo Tbilisi than the current prediction. (+14.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Dinamo Tbilisi, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Žalgiris than the current prediction. (-9.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Žalgiris, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.1%	26.3%	31.6%

Dinamo Tbilisi - Žalgiris Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Dinamo Tbilisi will win (votes: 8 - 42.1%). Žalgiris will win (votes: 6 - 31.6%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 26.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Dinamo Tbilisi: 19.9% – 64.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Loria G. (C) 17. Psaltis P. 27. Kurdic N. 4. Ugrekhelidze N. 3. Kalandadze A. 24. Osei B. 22. Ninua N. 6. Leo Santos 14. Do Couto M. 18. Kvaratskhelia T. 12. Bah A.	12. Sarkauskas V. (G) 18. Sesplaukis D. 4. Koy Lupano D. 15. Bosancic P. 21. Franke D. 20. Lytvynenko I. 77. Kendysh Y. (C) 10. Golubickas P. 19. Bilenkyi S. 70. Teixeira B. 11. Petkovic N.
Substitutes
28. Aleksidze R. 29. Danelia R. 26. Gogua G. 33. Houri L. 39. Kakashvili K. 23. Kankava J. 31. Kharabadze L. 21. Kvartskhava D. 37. Makatsaria M. (G) 16. Tkalia N. 32. Tsikolia L. 11. Vatsadze M.	8. Antal L. 29. Bicka K. 6. Capan M. 9. Jarusevicius G. 23. Mamatsashvili S. 7. Mihajlovic N. 1. Olses C. (G) 14. Setkus M. 5. Turda G. 13. Upstas K. 27. Vareika M. 22. Verbickas O.
Coaches
Ketsbaia T.	Skerla A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
14', 1 - 0, Kurdic N. ⚽,
26', 2 - 0, Leo Santos ⚽,
30', 3 - 0, Ugrekhelidze N. ⚽,
36', Franke D. 🟨,
44', Koy Lupano D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
63', Osei B. ↓, Kakashvili K. ↑,
68', Lytvynenko I. ↓, Capan M. ↑,
68', Petkovic N. ↓, Vareika M. ↑,
68', Kvaratskhelia T. ↓, Kharabadze L. ↑,
74', Capan M. 🟨,
79', Golubickas P. ↓, Mihajlovic N. ↑,
79', Franke D. ↓, Mamatsashvili S. ↑,
80', Kalandadze A. ↓, Vatsadze M. ↑,
80', Psaltis P. ↓, Tsikolia L. ↑,
80', Do Couto M. ↓, Tkalia N. ↑,
90', Teixeira B. ↓, Jarusevicius G. ↑,

Preview

First leg.

Recent performances by Dinamo Tbilisi have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Žalgiris is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Dinamo Tbilisi may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Dinamo Tbilisi is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dinamo Tbilisi
UEFA Europa Conference League
16.07.26	Dinamo Tbilisi - Mondorf-les-Bains	1:1 ET ✺
09.07.26	Mondorf-les-Bains - Dinamo Tbilisi	1:2 ✺
Georgian Super Cup
01.07.26	Dinamo Tbilisi - Dila Gori	1:0 penalties ✺
27.06.26	Iberia 1999 - Dinamo Tbilisi	1:0 ✺
Georgian Erovnuli Liga
23.06.26	Dinamo Tbilisi - Dinamo Batumi	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LWWLW
- Žalgiris Vilnius
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
19.07.26	Žalgiris - Transinvest	3:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
16.07.26	Žalgiris - Petrovac	2:1 ✺
09.07.26	Petrovac - Žalgiris	1:3 ✺
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
05.07.26	FA Šiauliai - Žalgiris	0:3 ✺
28.06.26	Džiugas Telšiai - Žalgiris	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WWWWT

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