Match Info

Jia League - Round 9

Date: 17 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Dingnan Football Youth Training Center (Dingnan)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8


	Dingnan United		Liaoning Tieren

	1	X	2
				Watch
	4.6	3.6	1.6
	6.4	4.5	1.38
	7.3	4.55	1.4
	6.92	4.38	1.45	Watch
	6.74	4.5	1.37	Watch
	6.4	4.5	1.38
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.39 ↑ (4.37)	4.34 ↑ (3.7)	1.43 ↓ (1.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dingnan United
14.4%

Draw
21.2%

Liaoning Tieren
64.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21%

24.8%

54.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21%

24.8%

54.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dingnan United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Dingnan United's form might have worsened.

Liaoning Tieren has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Liaoning Tieren's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dingnan United than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Dingnan United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Liaoning Tieren than the current prediction. (-10.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Liaoning Tieren, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Dingnan United - Liaoning Tieren Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Liaoning Tieren (1.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Liaoning Tieren (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Dong Yifan (G) 28. Shao Shuai 3. Zhang Tianlong 6. Zhu Jiaxuan 34. Ependi Nizamdin 15. Yang Fan 20. Tiago Fernandes 19. Li Suda 7. Zhang Jiansheng 11. Erikys 10. Tang Shi	20. Liu Weiguo (G) 5. Li Peng 28. Xu Dong 37. Zhang Jiaming 18. Tian Yinong 10. Kunimoto T. 6. Gao Jiarun 14. Zang Yifeng 15. Felipe 9. Mbenza G. 8. Samuel A.
Substitutes
26. Chen Liming 18. Fan Bojian 27. Ge Yifan (G) 22. He Shaolin 25. Li Boyang 9. Ma Chenghao 44. Mateos D. 14. Ren Wei 29. Xu Jiajun 33. Yan Jiahao 8. Zhang Zimin 16. Zhou Pinxi	1. Ablet Kudirat (G) 27. Chen Yongze 19. Gao Haisheng 11. Gui Zihan 32. Mao Kaiyu 21. Nur Sherzat 33. Sun Weijia 36. Tian Deao 16. Wang Tianci 25. Yang Jian 17. Zhao Jianbo 41. Zheng Zhiyun
Coaches
Liu Jianye	Li Jinyu

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
7', 1 - 0, Tang Shi ⚽, Tiago Fernandes (A),
21', 1 - 1, Mbenza G. ⚽, Kunimoto T. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 2)
54', 2 - 1, Zhu Jiaxuan ⚽,
56', Tian Yinong ↓, Gui Zihan ↑,
63', Zhang Jiansheng ↓, Mateos D. ↑,
63', Tang Shi ↓, Zhou Pinxi ↑,
63', Li Suda ↓, Ma Chenghao ↑,
72', 3 - 1, Erikys ⚽,
73', 3 - 2, Mbenza G. ⚽, Samuel A. (A),
75', Ependi Nizamdin ↓, Li Boyang ↑,
76', Kunimoto T. 🟨,
81', Gao Jiarun ↓, Zheng Zhiyun ↑,
82', He Shaolin 🟥,
88', Mateos D. 🟨,
90', 🟨,
90+2', Tiago Fernandes ↓, Zhang Zimin ↑,
90+7', 3 - 3, Mbenza G. ⚽,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 13 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Super League).

Dingnan United has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Liaoning Tieren is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

In this match, Liaoning Tieren is seen as the favorite.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jiangxi Dingnan United
Chinese Jia League
10.05.25	Dingnan United - Ningbo Professional	0:1 ✺
03.05.25	Chongqing Tongliang Long - Dingnan United	2:1 ✺
27.04.25	Dingnan United - Guangxi Pingguo Haliao	2:2 ✺
23.04.25	Foshan Nanshi - Dingnan United	0:0 ✺
Chinese FA Cup
19.04.25	Shanghai Segenda - Dingnan United	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LLTTW
- Liaoning Tieren FC
Chinese Jia League
11.05.25	Liaoning Tieren - Dalian Kun City	2:1 ✺
04.05.25	Liaoning Tieren - Shaanxi Union	2:1 ✺
26.04.25	Qingdao Red Lions - Liaoning Tieren	1:3 ✺
22.04.25	Liaoning Tieren - Shenzhen Juniors	7:1 ✺
Chinese FA Cup
18.04.25	Lanzhou Longyuan - Liaoning Tieren	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WWWWW

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