Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 14 - Round 30

Date: 12 April 2026, Sunday


	Diocesano		Gévora

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.15	3.1
	2.13	3.2	3.23
	2.13	3.27	3.22
	2.15	2.9	3.25
	2.11	3.16	3.21
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↑ (1.95)	3.14 ↓ (3.24)	3.2 ↓ (3.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Diocesano
42.7%

Draw
28.9%

Gévora
28.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.6%

28%

25.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.9%

26.7%

24.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Diocesano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Gévora has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Diocesano than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Diocesano, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gévora than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

Diocesano - Gévora Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Nagera A. ⚽,
42', 2 - 0, Nagera A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
47', 2 - 1, Monroy J. ⚽,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 15 and 14).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Gévora may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Diocesano might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Diocesano won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Gevora	5	2	2	1	8:9	-1	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Diocesano
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
05.04.26	Calamonte - Diocesano	1:1 ✺
02.04.26	Pueblonuevo - Diocesano	2:1 ✺
29.03.26	Diocesano - Puebla de la Calzada	1:0 ✺
22.03.26	Jaraíz - Diocesano	3:0 ✺
15.03.26	Diocesano - Montehermoso	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 TLWLT
- CD Gévora
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
03.04.26	Gévora - Villafranca	2:0 ✺
29.03.26	Don Benito - Gévora	2:0 ✺
22.03.26	Gévora - Santa Amalia	3:0 ✺
15.03.26	Azuaga - Gévora	2:0 ✺
08.03.26	Jerez - Gévora	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
07.12.25	Gévora - Diocesano	0:0

Diocesano - Gévora: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide