Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 14 - Round 28

Date: 29 March 2026, Sunday


	Diocesano		Puebla de la Calzada

	1	X	2
	2.12	3.2	3
	2.19	3.26	3.11
	2.17	3.29	3.1	Watch
	2.15	3	3.1
	2.16	3.14	3.13
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↑ (2.13)	3.18 ↓ (3.19)	3.09 ↓ (3.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Diocesano
42.1%

Draw
28.6%

Puebla de la Calzada
29.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.6%

28.5%

28.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.7%

27.8%

28.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Diocesano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Puebla de la Calzada has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Diocesano than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Puebla de la Calzada than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Diocesano - Puebla de la Calzada Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
45+2', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 15 and 12).

Both teams are currently in poor form.

Puebla may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Diocesano is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Diocesano won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:5. (average 1.3:1.7).

Including home match between the teams, Diocesano won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Puebla	5	2	2	1	8:4	4	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Diocesano
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
22.03.26	Jaraíz - Diocesano	3:0 ✺
15.03.26	Diocesano - Montehermoso	0:0 ✺
08.03.26	Villanovense - Diocesano	5:1 ✺
01.03.26	Diocesano - Cabeza del Buey	0:0 ✺
22.02.26	Llerenense - Diocesano	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LTLTL
- Puebla de la Calzada
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
21.03.26	Puebla de la Calzada - Villafranca	1:2 ✺
15.03.26	Don Benito - Puebla de la Calzada	4:0 ✺
08.03.26	Puebla de la Calzada - Santa Amalia	0:0 ✺
01.03.26	Azuaga - Puebla de la Calzada	2:0 ✺
25.02.26	Jerez - Puebla de la Calzada	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
16.11.25	Puebla de la Calzada - Diocesano	2:1
04.05.25	Diocesano - Puebla de la Calzada	2:1
22.12.24	Puebla de la Calzada - Diocesano	2:1

Diocesano - Puebla de la Calzada: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide