Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 14 - Round 27

Date: 22 March 2026, Sunday


	Jaraíz		Diocesano

	1	X	2
	1.44	3.95	6.1
	1.4	4.57	6.45
	1.52	4.00	5.78	Watch
	1.4	4	7
	1.36	4.3	7.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↓ (1.51)	4.16 ↑ (3.8)	6.57 ↑ (6.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jaraíz
64.1%

Draw
21.9%

Diocesano
13.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.7%

24.1%

15.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.1%

23.2%

14.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jaraíz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Diocesano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jaraíz than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Diocesano than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Jaraíz - Diocesano Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
25', 1 - 0, Ramos Moreno A. ⚽,
37', 2 - 0, Matos T. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
73', 3 - 0, Cruz L. ⚽,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 14 (Play Offs: ) and 15).

Recent performances by Jaraíz have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Diocesano's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Jaraíz is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Jaraíz won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:4. (average 2.5:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Jaraíz won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1. (average 2.5:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Jaraiz	5	1	1	3	6:9	-3	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CF Jaraíz
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
15.03.26	Villafranca - Jaraíz	2:1 ✺
08.03.26	Jaraíz - Don Benito	3:0 ✺
01.03.26	Santa Amalia - Jaraíz	1:4 ✺
21.02.26	Jaraíz - Azuaga	1:1 ✺
15.02.26	Gévora - Jaraíz	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 LWWTT
- CD Diocesano
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
15.03.26	Diocesano - Montehermoso	0:0 ✺
08.03.26	Villanovense - Diocesano	5:1 ✺
01.03.26	Diocesano - Cabeza del Buey	0:0 ✺
22.02.26	Llerenense - Diocesano	3:0 ✺
15.02.26	Diocesano - Badajoz	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 TLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
09.11.25	Diocesano - Jaraíz	2:3
20.04.25	Diocesano - Jaraíz	1:2
08.12.24	Jaraíz - Diocesano	3:0
17.12.23	Jaraíz - Diocesano	2:1

Jaraíz - Diocesano: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide