Match Info

Vysshaya Liga - Round 11

Date: 14 June 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadion Spartak (Mogilev)


	Dnyapro Mogilev		Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.10	3.30
	2.14	3.25	3.77
	2.05	3.00	3.30
	2.18	3.03	3.56	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.11 ↓ (2.35)	3.1 ↑ (3.02)	3.48 ↑ (3.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dnyapro Mogilev
43.8%

Draw
29.8%

Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk
26.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.8%

31%

29.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.5%

27.7%

32.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dnyapro Mogilev has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dnyapro Mogilev than the current prediction. (-8.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Dnyapro Mogilev that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Dnyapro Mogilev - Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ignatiev V. (G) 17. Potapenko A. 23. Dunaev A. 8. Rusak S. (C) 15. Kasarab M. 21. Karpitskiy E. 55. Krasnov N. 89. Harutyunyan V. 10. Zabelin K. 27. Piletskiy R. 11. Martynov T.	1. Sanko I. (G) 2. Bozhko E. 23. Polyakov D. 41. Lutik D. 31. Zaleskiy A. 77. Sotnikov N. 11. Lovets Y. (C) 10. Sazonchik S. 90. Antilevskiy D. 9. Vasin I. 7. Mokin M.
Substitutes
12. Bylinkin N. 29. Denisyuk A. 33. Gitselev Z. 77. Gushchenko D. (G) 38. Litskevich M. 18. Shemruk A. 99. Stepanenko V. 7. Tkachev T. 9. Torosyan E. 26. Yurkevich F.	4. Akunets E. 8. Kaplenko N. 13. Oreshkevich I. 30. Soroko A. (G) 26. Tkachenko V. 99. Tolkachev I. 46. Vasilyev V. 18. Volskiy D. 95. Vorobyov I.
Coaches
Suvorov S.	Voronkov I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
24', 0 - 1, Sotnikov N. ⚽,
42', Zabelin K. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
57', Potapenko A. 🟨,
61', Piletskiy R. ↓, Denisyuk A. ↑,
70', Sotnikov N. ↓, Tkachenko V. ↑,
70', Sazonchik S. ↓, Volskiy D. ↑,
73', Harutyunyan V. ↓, Shemruk A. ↑,
78', Bozhko E. ↓, Vasilyev V. ↑,
78', Mokin M. ↓, Oreshkevich I. ↑,
87', Potapenko A. 🟥,
88', Antilevskiy D. ↓, Tolkachev I. ↑,
89', 🟨,
90', Zabelin K. ↓, Gitselev Z. ↑,
90', Krasnov N. ↓, Stepanenko V. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 15 in the zone Relegation ~ Pershaya Liga and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dnyapro won 1.

Both teams are currently in poor form.

Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Dnyapro might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Dnyapro won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:6. (average 0.6:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Dnyapro won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:2. (average 0.8:0.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Arsenal Dzerzhinsk	23	5	8	10	24:41	-17	23
15	Dnepr Mogilev	23	2	10	11	20:36	-16	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dnyapro Mogilev
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga
31.05.26	BATE Borisov - Dnyapro Mogilev	1:1 ✺
24.05.26	Dinamo Minsk - Dnyapro Mogilev	3:1 ✺
17.05.26	Dnyapro Mogilev - Dinamo Brest	1:1 ✺
10.05.26	ML Vitebsk - Dnyapro Mogilev	5:1 ✺
02.05.26	Dnyapro Mogilev - Baranovichi	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 TLTLT
- Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga
30.05.26	Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk - Dinamo Minsk	0:1 ✺
23.05.26	Dinamo Brest - Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk	3:0 ✺
17.05.26	Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk - ML Vitebsk	0:3 ✺
08.05.26	Baranovichi - Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk	1:1 ✺
01.05.26	Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk - Isloch Minsk	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LLLTT

Latest Head to Head

Belarusian Vysshaya Liga
11.08.24	Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk - Dnyapro Mogilev	3:1
29.03.24	Dnyapro Mogilev - Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk	0:0
Belarusian Pershaya Liga
01.10.23	Dnyapro Mogilev - Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk	2:0
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga
06.11.22	Dnyapro Mogilev - Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk	0:1
10.07.22	Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk - Dnyapro Mogilev	1:0
Belarusian Pershaya Liga
06.11.21	Dnyapro Mogilev - Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk	1:0
21.08.21	Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk - Dnyapro Mogilev	0:0

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