Match Info

GERMANY: 3. LIGA - ROUND 15

Date: 5 November 2022, Saturday

Location: Schauinsland-Reisen-Arena (Duisburg)

Referee: Hempel R. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Germany	Magenta Sport


	Duisburg		Bayreuth

	1	X	2
	1.61	3.8	4.75
	1.65	3.9	4.8
	1.62	3.65	5
	1.65	3.8	4.8
	1.67	3.9	5.56
	1.63	3.6	4.5
	1.64	4.05	4.7	Watch
	1.62	3.7	4.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↓ (1.74)	3.8 (3.8)	4.85 ↑ (4.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Duisburg
56.6%

Draw
24.4%

Bayreuth
19.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.2%

24.3%

22.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54%

23.9%

22.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Duisburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Bayreuth has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Duisburg than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayreuth than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	5%	15%

Duisburg - Bayreuth Predictions

Users Predictions: Duisburg will win (16 of 20 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.47% – 97.53%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 11 and 19 in the zone Relegation).

Two teams are playing changeable.

Duisburg could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Duisburg is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- MSV Duisburg
German 3 Bundesliga
28.10.22	Wehen Wiesbaden - Duisburg	1:3 ✺
22.10.22	Duisburg - Viktoria Köln	1:1 ✺
16.10.22	Borussia Dortmund II - Duisburg	2:0 ✺
08.10.22	Elversberg - Duisburg	3:0 ✺
01.10.22	Duisburg - Hallescher	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WTLLW
- SpVgg Bayreuth
German 3 Bundesliga
29.10.22	Bayreuth - 1860 München	1:0 ✺
24.10.22	Hallescher - Bayreuth	3:0 ✺
16.10.22	Bayreuth - Verl	1:3 ✺
08.10.22	Meppen - Bayreuth	0:1 ✺
01.10.22	Bayreuth - Dynamo Dresden	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.5 WLLWT

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