Match Info

GERMANY: 3. LIGA - ROUND 19

Date: 17 December 2023, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	SportKlub
Germany	Magenta Sport
Serbia	SportKlub
Slovenia	SportKlub


	Duisburg		Dynamo Dresden

	1	X	2
	4.5	3.6	1.7
	4.6	3.75	1.7
	4.5	3.6	1.75	Watch
	4.77	3.96	1.76
	4.78	3.96	1.74
	4.2	3.6	1.65
	4.5	3.72	1.7	Watch
	4.2	3.55	1.72
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.51 ↑ (3.78)	3.72 ↑ (3.47)	1.72 ↓ (1.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Duisburg
20.7%

Draw
25%

Dynamo Dresden
54.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.7%

26.9%

48.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.6%

26%

46.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Duisburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Dynamo Dresden has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Dynamo Dresden's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Duisburg than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dynamo Dresden than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Dynamo Dresden, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
13.3%	6.7%	80%

Duisburg - Dynamo Dresden Predictions

Users Predictions: Dynamo Dresden will win (12 of 15 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.76% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Muller V. (G) 21. Feltscher R. 29. Bitter J. 17. Knoll M. 22. Kother T. 6. Bakalorz M. 18. Jander C. 10. Pledl T. 7. Pusch K. 11. Kolle N. 31. Girth B.	1. Drljaca S. (G) 39. Ehlers K. 31. Lewald J. 33. Kraulich T. 8. Meier J. 19. Herrmann L. 28. Will P. 27. Hauptmann N. 10. Lemmer J. 30. Kutschke S. (C) 22. Zimmerschied T.
Substitutes
24. Braune M. (G) 5. Castaneda S. 40. Esswein A. 15. Fleckstein T. 27. Konig P. 16. Michelbrink J. 20. Muller R. 4. Senger M. 23. Stierlin N.	6. Berger T. 29. Borkowski D. 23. Bunning L. 11. Cueto L. 40. Herrmann E. (G) 21. Meissner R. 25. Oehmichen J. 2. Park K. 7. Vlachodimos P.
Coaches
Schommers B.	Anfang M.

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ 2. Bundesliga).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Duisburg won 0.

Two teams are playing changeable.

Duisburg could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Dynamo Dresden is a favorite.

Last 13 head-to-head matches Duisburg won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 6-17.

Including matches at home between the teams Duisburg won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 4-10.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- MSV Duisburg
German 3 Bundesliga
09.12.23	Erzgebirge Aue - Duisburg	1:1 ✺
02.12.23	Duisburg - Lübeck	1:0 ✺
29.11.23	Saarbrücken - Duisburg	0:0 ✺
25.11.23	Sandhausen - Duisburg	2:0 ✺
11.11.23	Duisburg - Ingolstadt	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 TWTLL
- Dynamo Dresden
German 3 Bundesliga
10.12.23	Dynamo Dresden - Unterhaching	2:1 ✺
03.12.23	Verl - Dynamo Dresden	1:0 ✺
26.11.23	Dynamo Dresden - Jahn Regensburg	0:1 ✺
19.11.23	Saarbrücken - Dynamo Dresden	1:0 ✺
10.11.23	Viktoria Köln - Dynamo Dresden	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

German 3 Bundesliga
15.03.23	Dynamo Dresden - Duisburg	2:0
11.09.22	Duisburg - Dynamo Dresden	0:1
28.04.21	Dynamo Dresden - Duisburg	1:0
29.11.20	Duisburg - Dynamo Dresden	0:3
German 2 Bundesliga
23.12.18	Duisburg - Dynamo Dresden	1:3
06.08.18	Dynamo Dresden - Duisburg	1:0
17.12.17	Duisburg - Dynamo Dresden	2:0

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