Match Info

3. Liga - Round 37

Date: 8 May 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Erzgebirgsstadion (Aue) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Behrens K. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Croatia	19:00	SportKlub 10
Germany	19:00	DFB Play, Magenta Sport
Slovakia	19:00	Arena sport 2
Usa	13:00	ESPN App, ESPN+
International	17:00	Onefootball


	Erzgebirge Aue		Duisburg

	1	X	2
	4.2	4	1.57	Watch
	4.55	4.25	1.6	Watch
	4.78	4.77	1.63
	4.3	4.74	1.6	Watch
	4.2	4.2	1.57
	4.59	4.4	1.53	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.44 ↑ (3.82)	4.39 (4.39)	1.58 ↓ (1.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Erzgebirge Aue
20.8%

Draw
21%

Duisburg
58.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

24.2%

21%

54.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.8%

20.6%

55.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Erzgebirge Aue has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Duisburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Erzgebirge Aue than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Duisburg than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	0%	83.3%

Erzgebirge Aue - Duisburg Predictions

Users Predictions: Duisburg will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Lord L. (G) 23. Barylla A. 16. Malone R. 25. Zobel T. 13. Majetschak E. 20. Fabisch J. 10. Gunther-Schmidt J. 7. Weinhauer E. 19. Guttau J. 30. Seiffert M. 15. Bar M.	1. Braune M. (G) 20. Jessen N. 29. Bitter J. 42. Hahn A. 40. Schlicke B. 17. Gockan M. 26. Kruger F. 6. Bulic R. 10. Viet C. 31. Kother D. 22. Topken T.
Substitutes
9. Bornschein R. 29. Collins J. 24. Ehlers J. 1. Mannel M. (G) 45. Ocansey V. A. F. 39. Schmid M. 5. Simnica L. 34. Stefaniak M. 11. Uhlmann E.	4. Becker D. 8. Casar A. 27. Coskun C. 45. Lobinger L. 18. Meuer S. 14. Noss C. 24. Paris J. (G) 37. Sussek P. 23. Symalla J.
Coaches
Shubitidze K.	Hirsch D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
26', Seiffert M. ↓, Collins J. ↑,
32', Fabisch J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
62', Gockan M. ↓, Coskun C. ↑,
62', Bitter J. ↓, Casar A. ↑,
62', Topken T. ↓, Lobinger L. ↑,
69', Kother D. ↓, Noss C. ↑,
70', Gunther-Schmidt J. ↓, Uhlmann E. ↑,
70', Fabisch J. ↓, Simnica L. ↑,
79', Weinhauer E. ↓, Stefaniak M. ↑,
79', Guttau J. ↓, Ehlers J. ↑,
79', Kruger F. ↓, Sussek P. ↑,
83', Lobinger L. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ 2. Bundesliga (Promotion: )).

Aue is Relegated to

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aue won 0.

Aue has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Duisburg is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, Duisburg is the team to beat.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Aue won 1 match, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 7:17. (average 0.6:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Aue won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:6. (average 0.4:1.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Duisburg	11	8	1	2	28:14	14	25

Outrights of German 3 Bundesliga for now

Duisburg: 27.65%

Last Results with these Odds

Erzgebirge Aue - the odds 3.82 are the expected chance of winning is 24.15%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Erzgebirge Aue
German 3 Bundesliga
03.05.26	Ingolstadt - Erzgebirge Aue	3:5 ✺
25.04.26	Erzgebirge Aue - Wehen Wiesbaden	2:2 ✺
19.04.26	VfB Stuttgart II - Erzgebirge Aue	2:2 ✺
12.04.26	Erzgebirge Aue - Verl	1:1 ✺
07.04.26	Jahn Regensburg - Erzgebirge Aue	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 WTTTL
- MSV Duisburg
German 3 Bundesliga
03.05.26	Duisburg - Energie Cottbus	2:1 ✺
24.04.26	Alemannia Aachen - Duisburg	3:1 ✺
18.04.26	Duisburg - Hoffenheim II	3:1 ✺
11.04.26	Waldhof Mannheim - Duisburg	1:4 ✺
07.04.26	Duisburg - Osnabrück	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

German 3 Bundesliga
13.12.25	Duisburg - Erzgebirge Aue	0:0
12.05.24	Duisburg - Erzgebirge Aue	2:2
09.12.23	Erzgebirge Aue - Duisburg	1:1
05.05.23	Duisburg - Erzgebirge Aue	3:0
08.11.22	Erzgebirge Aue - Duisburg	0:2
German 2 Bundesliga
24.02.19	Erzgebirge Aue - Duisburg	0:0
23.09.18	Duisburg - Erzgebirge Aue	1:2

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