Match Info

GERMANY: 3. LIGA - ROUND 20

Date: 20 December 2023, Wednesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Germany	Magenta Sport


	Duisburg		Freiburg II

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.8	4.75
	1.72	3.6	4.75
	1.68	3.75	4.75	Watch
	1.78	3.72	4.6
	1.72	3.84	5.13
	1.6	3.6	4.5
	1.69	3.7	4.6	Watch
	1.68	3.55	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↓ (1.77)	3.7 ↑ (3.59)	4.69 ↑ (4.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Duisburg
54.9%

Draw
25.2%

Freiburg II
19.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.7%

26%

21.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46%

22.7%

24.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Duisburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Freiburg II has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Duisburg than the current prediction. (-8.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Duisburg that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Freiburg II than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
89.3%	3.6%	7.1%

Duisburg - Freiburg II Predictions

Users Predictions: Duisburg will win (25 of 28 users predict this - 89.29%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.84% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Muller V. (G) 29. Bitter J. 15. Fleckstein T. 17. Knoll M. 22. Kother T. 5. Castaneda S. 18. Jander C. 10. Pledl T. 7. Pusch K. 11. Kolle N. 26. Mai S. (C)	33. Hornung S. (G) 17. Fallmann P. 47. Ogbus B. 13. Muller S. 19. Bouebari F. 42. Marino L. 11. Stark J. (C) 36. Ambros L. 22. Baur M. 28. Johansson R. 18. Al Ghaddioui H.
Substitutes
6. Bakalorz M. 24. Braune M. (G) 40. Esswein A. 31. Girth B. 16. Michelbrink J. 2. Mogultay B. 20. Muller R. 4. Senger M. 23. Stierlin N.	27. Allgaier F. 25. Bichsel J. 6. Braun-Schumacher S. 21. Lee Ji-Han 8. Lienhard P. 38. Mack L. (G) 46. Sturm Y. 20. Worner M. 48. Yilmaz B.
Coaches
Schommers B.	Stamm T.

Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation and 20 in the zone Relegation).

Recent matches Duisburg is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Freiburg II has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Duisburg is a favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Duisburg won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 5-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Duisburg won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- MSV Duisburg
German 3 Bundesliga
17.12.23	Duisburg - Dynamo Dresden	2:4 ✺
09.12.23	Erzgebirge Aue - Duisburg	1:1 ✺
02.12.23	Duisburg - Lübeck	1:0 ✺
29.11.23	Saarbrücken - Duisburg	0:0 ✺
25.11.23	Sandhausen - Duisburg	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 LTWTL
- Freiburg II
German 3 Bundesliga
17.12.23	Viktoria Köln - Freiburg II	2:0 ✺
09.12.23	Freiburg II - Saarbrücken	0:4 ✺
03.12.23	Jahn Regensburg - Freiburg II	3:2 ✺
28.11.23	Freiburg II - Hallescher	1:2 ✺
25.11.23	Ulm 1846 - Freiburg II	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

German 3 Bundesliga
06.08.23	Freiburg II - Duisburg	1:1
18.02.23	Freiburg II - Duisburg	2:0
15.08.22	Duisburg - Freiburg II	3:1
07.05.22	Duisburg - Freiburg II	1:0
05.12.21	Freiburg II - Duisburg	1:0

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