Match Info

Challenge Cup - Round 4

Date: 23 September 2025, Tuesday

Location: Dumbarton Football Stadium (Dumbarton)


	Dumbarton		Kelty Hearts

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.7	2.8
	2.15	3.65	2.92
	2.19	3.55	2.88
	3.96	3.68	1.80	Watch
	2.2	3.56	2.88
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.52 ↑ (2.07)	3.63 ↓ (3.65)	2.66 ↓ (2.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dumbarton
37.8%

Draw
26.3%

Kelty Hearts
35.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44%

25%

31%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.5%

24.7%

30.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dumbarton has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Dumbarton's form might have worsened.

Kelty Hearts has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dumbarton than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Dumbarton, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kelty Hearts than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Kelty Hearts, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Dumbarton - Kelty Hearts Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 3)
20', 1 - 0, Honeyman S. ⚽,
25', 1 - 1, Arnott A. (Pen),
26', 1 - 2, Cole R. ⚽, Johnston C. (A),
36', 1 - 3, Arnott A. (Pen),
39', 2 - 3, Arnott A. (Own goal),
45+1', 3 - 3, Wallace T. ⚽, Honeyman S. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Dumbarton has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Kelty Hearts has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, Kelty Hearts has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dumbarton won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:7. (average 2.2:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Dumbarton won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:5. (average 1.7:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dumbarton
Scottish League Two
20.09.25	East Kilbride - Dumbarton	1:1 ✺
13.09.25	Forfar Athletic - Dumbarton	2:3 ✺
Scottish Challenge Cup
06.09.25	East Fife - Dumbarton	1:1 ✺
Scottish League Two
30.08.25	Dumbarton - Edinburgh City	1:2 ✺
Scottish Challenge Cup
26.08.25	Dumbarton - Hearts B	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 TWTLW
- Kelty Hearts
Scottish League One
20.09.25	Kelty Hearts - Hamilton Academical	0:4 ✺
13.09.25	Kelty Hearts - Stenhousemuir	0:1 ✺
Scottish Challenge Cup
06.09.25	Kelty Hearts - Stranraer	3:0 ✺
Scottish League One
30.08.25	Queen of the South - Kelty Hearts	2:1 ✺
Scottish Challenge Cup
26.08.25	Kelty Hearts - Celtic B	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Scottish League One
05.04.25	Kelty Hearts - Dumbarton	0:6
28.12.24	Dumbarton - Kelty Hearts	2:0
09.11.24	Kelty Hearts - Dumbarton	2:0
31.08.24	Dumbarton - Kelty Hearts	2:2
Scottish Challenge Cup
09.09.23	Dumbarton - Kelty Hearts	1:3

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