Match Info

League One - Round 23

Date: 31 January 2026, Saturday

Location: New Central Park (Kelty)


	Kelty Hearts		Hamilton Academical

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.4	2.38
	4.2	3.7	1.63
	2.68	3.4	2.35
	2.75	3.47	2.42
	2.76	3.59	2.33	Watch
	2.75	3.4	2.25
	2.68	3.28	2.31	Watch
	2.57	3.33	2.37
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.87 ↓ (5.14)	3.45 ↓ (4.28)	2.26 ↑ (1.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kelty Hearts
32.2%

Draw
26.8%

Hamilton Academical
41%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.8%

21.4%

60.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.3%

20.9%

62.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kelty Hearts has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Kelty Hearts's performance.

Hamilton Academical has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-19.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Hamilton Academical might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kelty Hearts than the current prediction. (-14.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Kelty Hearts that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hamilton Academical than the current prediction. (+21.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Hamilton Academical could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Kelty Hearts - Hamilton Academical Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Kelty Hearts will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Hamilton will win (votes: 3 - 75%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
46. Gourlay K. (G) 2. Thomas M. 12. Fisher S. 20. Corr D. 3. Paterson B. 6. Ferguson A. 18. Pettifer A. 15. Clay C. (C) 7. Moore L. 24. Cooper C. 17. McCarvel L.	41. Lane J. (G) 2. Hutton Z. 5. Smutek K. 4. Kilday L. 33. Hendrie S. (C) 16. MacDonald K. 15. Newbury C. 10. Bradley S. 19. Simpson E. 27. McKinstry S. 7. O'Hara K.
Substitutes
21. Adamson R. (G) 8. Arnott A. 19. Bexfield C. 14. Graham J. 30. Leitch G. 29. Snoddy J. 27. Wyllie J.	21. Crookston G. 32. Eadie A. 42. Lyons L. 18. Morgan L. 9. Shaw O. 49. Shiels D. 51. Stafford N. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
17', Clay C. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
57', Cooper C. ↓, Graham J. ↑,
57', Simpson E. ↓, Shaw O. ↑,
62', MacDonald K. 🟨,
66', McKinstry S. ↓, Crookston G. ↑,
74', Newbury C. 🟨,
76', Newbury C. ↓, Forrest C. ↑,
83', Hutton Z. 🟨,
86', Ferguson A. ↓, Arnott A. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kelty Hearts won 1.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Hamilton will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Kelty Hearts won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 7:20. (average 0.9:2.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Kelty Hearts won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 2:12. (average 0.5:3).

Outrights of Scottish League One for now

Hamilton: 13.09% Kelty Hearts: 5.2%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Hamilton	8	7	1	0	18:2	16	22

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kelty Hearts
Scottish League One
24.01.26	Kelty Hearts - Stenhousemuir	0:2 ✺
Scottish Cup
17.01.26	Kelty Hearts - Cove Rangers	2:1 penalties ✺
Scottish League One
10.01.26	Queen of the South - Kelty Hearts	3:1 ✺
03.01.26	Kelty Hearts - Alloa Athletic	1:1 ✺
27.12.25	East Fife - Kelty Hearts	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.4 LWLTW
- Hamilton Academical
Scottish League One
24.01.26	Hamilton Academical - Cove Rangers	2:0 ✺
17.01.26	Peterhead - Hamilton Academical	2:3 ✺
27.12.25	Queen of the South - Hamilton Academical	4:1 ✺
20.12.25	Hamilton Academical - Alloa Athletic	1:0 ✺
13.12.25	Inverness - Hamilton Academical	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Scottish League One
22.11.25	Hamilton Academical - Kelty Hearts	3:1
20.09.25	Kelty Hearts - Hamilton Academical	0:4
Club Friendly
06.07.24	Kelty Hearts - Hamilton Academical	2:1
Scottish League One
04.05.24	Hamilton Academical - Kelty Hearts	4:1
02.03.24	Kelty Hearts - Hamilton Academical	0:5
23.12.23	Hamilton Academical - Kelty Hearts	1:1
Scottish Cup
25.11.23	Hamilton Academical - Kelty Hearts	0:2

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