Match Info

Challenge Cup - Round 3

Date: 6 September 2025, Saturday

Location: New Central Park (Kelty)


	Kelty Hearts		Stranraer

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.4	3.8
	1.8	3.3	3.75
	1.88	3.65	3.65
	1.86	3.9	3.43
	1.98	3.32	3.63	Watch
	1.86	3.56	3.78
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↑ (1.71)	3.52 ↑ (3.47)	3.67 ↓ (4.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kelty Hearts
49.1%

Draw
26%

Stranraer
24.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.4%

26.3%

20.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.5%

26.8%

19.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kelty Hearts has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Stranraer has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kelty Hearts than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Kelty Hearts, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stranraer than the current prediction. (-5%)

Kelty Hearts - Stranraer Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (3 - 0)
47', 1 - 0, Johnston C. ⚽, Graham J. (A),
68', 2 - 0, Murray I. ⚽, Arnott A. (A),
90+1', 3 - 0, Campbell B. ⚽, Murray I. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kelty Hearts won 5.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, Kelty Hearts is a strong favorite.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Kelty Hearts won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 15:5. (average 2.5:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Kelty Hearts won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:5. (average 2:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kelty Hearts
Scottish League One
30.08.25	Queen of the South - Kelty Hearts	2:1 ✺
Scottish Challenge Cup
26.08.25	Kelty Hearts - Celtic B	0:1 ✺
Scottish League One
23.08.25	East Fife - Kelty Hearts	2:1 ✺
Scottish Challenge Cup
12.08.25	Kelty Hearts - Annan Athletic	1:0 ✺
Scottish League One
09.08.25	Montrose - Kelty Hearts	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LLLWW
- Stranraer FC
Scottish League Two
30.08.25	Stirling Albion - Stranraer	1:0 ✺
Scottish Challenge Cup
26.08.25	Stranraer - Glasgow Rangers B	4:1 ✺
Scottish League Two
23.08.25	Stranraer - Clyde	1:1 ✺
16.08.25	East Kilbride - Stranraer	3:1 ✺
Scottish Challenge Cup
12.08.25	Stranraer - Alloa Athletic	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 LWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Scottish League Cup
25.07.23	Kelty Hearts - Stranraer	2:0
Scottish League Two
16.04.22	Stranraer - Kelty Hearts	0:3
29.01.22	Kelty Hearts - Stranraer	3:2
18.12.21	Stranraer - Kelty Hearts	0:4
25.09.21	Kelty Hearts - Stranraer	1:0
Scottish Cup
09.01.21	Kelty Hearts - Stranraer	2:3

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