Match Info

League Two - Round 29

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Borough Briggs (Elgin)


	Elgin City		Dumbarton

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.4	2.75
	2.18	3.5	2.88
	2.3	3.42	2.9
	2.22	3.64	2.77	Watch
	2.3	3.2	2.9
	2.15	3.3	3.02
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.22 ↑ (2.07)	3.41 ↓ (3.5)	2.87 ↓ (2.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Elgin City
41.3%

Draw
26.8%

Dumbarton
31.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.7%

25.9%

30.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.3%

25.5%

30%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Elgin City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Dumbarton has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Elgin City than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dumbarton than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Elgin City - Dumbarton Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Elgin (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ritchie T. (G) 12. Cairns O. 5. Girvan K. 4. Virtanen M. 19. Ross D. 10. Gallagher M. 20. Spalding A. 27. Machado M. 7. Dingwall R. (C) 24. Walker J. 11. Sargent R.	19. Rice A. (G) 4. Webster K. 5. Durnan M. (C) 3. Omar A. 24. Doyle M. 7. Tomlinson S. 8. Todd J. 22. Smith A. 14. Livingstone A. 15. McIntosh L. 21. Honeyman S.
Substitutes
8. Cameron B. 9. Hester K. 26. Hickey R. 14. Mercer J. 21. Taylor C. (G) 25. Thompson R.	6. Blair R. 9. Duncan J. 16. Joseph T. 27. Kirkpatrick K. 1. Long B. (G) 10. Roy A. 11. Wallace T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
34', 1 - 0, Sargent R. ⚽, Walker J. (A),
36', Doyle M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
51', 1 - 1, McIntosh L. ⚽,
68', Machado M. ↓, Hester K. ↑,
68', Gallagher M. ↓, Hickey R. ↑,
74', Spalding A. ↓, Cameron B. ↑,
74', Walker J. ↓, Thompson R. ↑,
82', Livingstone A. ↓, Roy A. ↑,
90+2', Hickey R. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Elgin won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Elgin could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Elgin won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 13:15. (average 1.1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Elgin won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:5. (average 1:1).

Outrights of Scottish League Two for now

Elgin City: 11.71% Dumbarton: 3.97%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Elgin City	9	4	2	3	25:16	9	14
6	Dumbarton	9	4	0	5	10:15	-5	12

Last Results with these Odds

Dumbarton - the odds 2.98 are the expected chance of winning is 30.41%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Elgin City
Scottish League Two
10.03.26	Annan Athletic - Elgin City	2:1 ✺
07.03.26	East Kilbride - Elgin City	3:0 ✺
28.02.26	Stranraer - Elgin City	1:2 ✺
24.02.26	Elgin City - Edinburgh City	3:0 ✺
21.02.26	Elgin City - Stirling Albion	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 LLWWW
- Dumbarton
Scottish League Two
10.03.26	Dumbarton - Stranraer	2:0 ✺
07.03.26	Dumbarton - Spartans	3:0 ✺
28.02.26	Stirling Albion - Dumbarton	1:1 ✺
24.02.26	Dumbarton - Clyde	0:0 ✺
21.02.26	East Kilbride - Dumbarton	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.6 WWTTL

Latest Head to Head

Scottish League Two
24.01.26	Dumbarton - Elgin City	2:2
15.11.25	Elgin City - Dumbarton	2:0
16.08.25	Dumbarton - Elgin City	1:1
27.04.24	Dumbarton - Elgin City	2:2
27.01.24	Elgin City - Dumbarton	0:1
18.11.23	Dumbarton - Elgin City	1:0
16.09.23	Elgin City - Dumbarton	2:0

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