Match Info

League One - Round 30

Date: 21 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Ochilview Park (Stenhousemuir)


	Stenhousemuir		Kelty Hearts

	1	X	2
	1.6	3.75	5.25
	1.53	3.7	5.25
	1.58	3.7	5.3
	1.57	3.72	6.27
	1.57	4.02	5.42	Watch
	1.6	3.5	5.75
	1.62	3.79	5.31	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↑ (1.55)	3.74 ↑ (3.53)	5.51 ↓ (5.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stenhousemuir
58.5%

Draw
24.7%

Kelty Hearts
16.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.8%

25.8%

15.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62%

24.5%

14.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stenhousemuir has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Kelty Hearts has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stenhousemuir than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kelty Hearts than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Stenhousemuir - Kelty Hearts Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Jamieson D. (G) 2. Meechan R. 5. Jamieson N. 4. Buchanan G. (C) 3. Simpson O. 17. Anderson M. 23. McGill S. 22. Whyte O. 7. O'Reilly E. 9. Aitken M. 11. Taylor R.	46. Gourlay K. (G) 25. Davidson A. 20. Corr D. 35. Brydon J. 12. Fisher S. 15. Clay C. (C) 6. Ferguson A. 14. Graham J. 26. Cunningham R. 7. Moore L. 10. Murray I.
Substitutes
12. Cameron Z. 15. Carrick D. 21. Ewen K. 6. Graham A. 24. Grant L. 10. Gray F. 34. Lyle C. (G) 25. Ritchie-Hosler K. 8. Robson F.	21. Adamson R. (G) 8. Arnott A. 24. Cooper C. 30. Leitch G. 18. Pettifer A. 29. Snoddy J. 2. Thomas M. 27. Wyllie J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Taylor R. ⚽, O'Reilly E. (A),
19', Fisher S. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
53', Clay C. 🟨,
55', Brydon J. 🟨,
57', Meechan R. 🟨,
60', Cunningham R. ↓, Cooper C. ↑,
60', Fisher S. ↓, Wyllie J. ↑,
64', Murray I. 🟨,
71', Ferguson A. 🟨,
74', O'Reilly E. ↓, Cameron Z. ↑,
75', Ferguson A. ↓, Arnott A. ↑,
75', Murray I. ↓, Pettifer A. ↑,
82', 2 - 0, Aitken M. ⚽, Taylor R. (A),
84', Davidson A. 🟨,
85', Aitken M. ↓, Carrick D. ↑,
85', Taylor R. ↓, Ritchie-Hosler K. ↑,
88', Graham J. ↓, Thomas M. ↑,
90', Anderson M. ↓, Grant L. ↑,
90', McGill S. ↓, Robson F. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Stenhousemuir won 2.

Stenhousemuir is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Kelty Hearts's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Recently, Stenhousemuir has had a series of away games.

In this match, Stenhousemuir is a strong favorite.

We predict that Stenhousemuir will win today's game, with odds of 1.53.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Stenhousemuir won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 8:13. (average 0.7:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Stenhousemuir won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:8. (average 1:1.6).

Outrights of Scottish League One for now

Kelty Hearts: 5.2%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stenhousemuir
Scottish League One
14.03.26	Peterhead - Stenhousemuir	0:1 ✺
07.03.26	Queen of the South - Stenhousemuir	1:1 ✺
03.03.26	Hamilton Academical - Stenhousemuir	0:1 ✺
28.02.26	Stenhousemuir - Cove Rangers	1:0 ✺
21.02.26	Inverness - Stenhousemuir	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 WTWWT
- Kelty Hearts
Scottish League One
14.03.26	Kelty Hearts - East Fife	1:1 ✺
07.03.26	Alloa Athletic - Kelty Hearts	2:1 ✺
03.03.26	Montrose - Kelty Hearts	1:1 ✺
28.02.26	Kelty Hearts - Inverness	0:0 ✺
21.02.26	Cove Rangers - Kelty Hearts	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.6 TLTTT

Latest Head to Head

Scottish League One
24.01.26	Kelty Hearts - Stenhousemuir	0:2
08.11.25	Stenhousemuir - Kelty Hearts	2:2
13.09.25	Kelty Hearts - Stenhousemuir	0:1
15.03.25	Stenhousemuir - Kelty Hearts	0:0
11.01.25	Kelty Hearts - Stenhousemuir	0:0
26.10.24	Stenhousemuir - Kelty Hearts	2:1
10.08.24	Kelty Hearts - Stenhousemuir	2:0

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