Match Info

DFB Pokal - 1/32-finals

Date: 18 August 2025, Monday

Location: Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion (Dresden)

Referee: Badstubner F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SupeSport ESPN 2
Argentina	Disney+
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria Top Event, Sky Sport Mix
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
China	ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
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Czech-republic	Nova Sport 1
Europe	Go3 Sport Open Baltic
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DFB Play, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport 3, Sky Sport Mix, Sky Sport Top Event, tv.dfb.de, WOW
Hong-kong	M Plus Live
Hungary	Sport 1
Israel	Sport 4
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	SupeSport ESPN 2
Norway	VG+
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Eleven Sports 2
Portugal	DAZN / App
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1 Premium
South-africa	SupeSport ESPN 2
Switzerland	Sky Sport Mix, Sky Sport Top Event
Turkey	S Sport+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Onefootball


	Dynamo Dresden		Mainz

	1	X	2
	5.25	4.33	1.55	Watch
	4.6	4.2	1.65
	4.95	4.45	1.55	Watch
	5.45	4.46	1.57
	3.72	3.49	1.92	Watch
	3.9	3.5	1.85
	5.6	4.39	1.55	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.78 ↑ (3.15)	4.12 ↑ (3.48)	1.66 ↓ (2.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dynamo Dresden
19.9%

Draw
23.1%

Mainz
57.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.8%

27%

43.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dynamo Dresden has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Dynamo Dresden's form might have worsened.

Mainz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Mainz's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
13.3%	16.7%	70%

Dynamo Dresden - Mainz Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Dynamo Dresden will win (votes: 4 - 13.3%). Mainz will win (votes: 21 - 70%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mainz: 53.6% – 86.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH -1 - Mainz (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Mainz will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Mainz (votes: 9 - 81.8%). Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Schreiber T. (G) 2. Faber K. 29. Boeder L. 23. Bunning L. 28. Risch S. 5. Sapina V. 6. Amoako K. 27. Hauptmann N. (C) 10. Lemmer J. 16. Froling N. 11. Kother D.	27. Zentner R. (G) 21. da Costa D. 16. Bell S. 31. Kohr D. 30. Widmer S. (C) 10. Amiri N. 6. Sano K. 9. Nordin A. 8. Nebel P. 17. Hollerbach B. 11. Sieb A.
Substitutes
17. Casar A. 31. Grill L. (G) 8. Herrmann L. 15. Kammerknecht C. 39. Kubatta D. 30. Kutschke S. 26. Marx J. H. 24. Menzel T. 25. Oehmichen J.	77. Bobzien B. 19. Caci A. 25. Hanche-Olsen A. 24. Kawasaki S. 7. Lee Jae-Sung 5. Leitsch M. 15. Maloney L. 2. Mwene P. 1. Riess L. (G)
Coaches
Stamm T.	Henriksen B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
21', Boeder L. 🟨,
22', 0 - 1, Amiri N. ⚽,
32', Kohr D. 🟨,
32', Froling N. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Bell S. ↓, Leitsch M. ↑,
64', Hollerbach B. ↓, Bobzien B. ↑,
64', Kohr D. ↓, Hanche-Olsen A. ↑,
64', Hauptmann N. ↓, Herrmann L. ↑,
66', Lemmer J. (Pen),
75', Nebel P. ↓, Lee Jae-Sung ↑,
77', Froling N. ↓, Kutschke S. ↑,
78', Kother D. ↓, Oehmichen J. ↑,
79', Amiri N. ↓, Maloney L. ↑,
84', Sapina V. ↓, Menzel T. ↑,
87', 🟥,
90+3', Bobzien B. 🟨,

Preview

In this match, Mainz is the team to beat.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dynamo Dresden
German 2 Bundesliga
09.08.25	Dynamo Dresden - Magdeburg	1:2 ✺
03.08.25	Greuther Fürth - Dynamo Dresden	3:2 ✺
Club Friendly
13.07.25	Slavia Prague - Dynamo Dresden	4:2 ✺
German 3 Bundesliga
17.05.25	Dynamo Dresden - Unterhaching	3:0 ✺
10.05.25	Waldhof Mannheim - Dynamo Dresden	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLLWL
- Mainz 05
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Mainz - Strasbourg	0:0 ✺
25.07.25	Mainz - Seekirchen	5:0 ✺
16.07.25	Saarbrücken - Mainz	1:4 ✺
11.07.25	Bayern Alzenau - Mainz	0:4 ✺
German Bundesliga
17.05.25	Mainz - Bayer Leverkusen	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 TWWWT

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