Match Info

Conference League - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 9 April 2026, Thursday

Location: Mewa Arena (Mainz)

Referee: Obrenovic R. (Slo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 5
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4
Canada	DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
China	ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Denmark	Disney+
France	CANAL+ France, Canal+ Live 1, Free
Germany	RTL+
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 8
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Hungary	Selekt, Sport 2
Iceland	Viaplay
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, Vidio
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, Canal+
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Mexico	Disney+
Mongolia	Premier Sports 5
Myanmar	Canal + Mae Madi, Canal+ Myanmar
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	Polsat Sport Extra 3
Portugal	DAZN / App
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 6
Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
South-america	ViX Latin America
South-korea	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 6
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 4, Blue Sport 4, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 6, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, HBO Max, TNT Sports 6
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	ON Plus


	Mainz		Strasbourg

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.3	3.1
	2.05	3.3	3.25
	2.35	3.2	3.3
	2.37	3.2	3.35
	2.3	3.35	3.19	Watch
	2.25	3.1	3.1
	2.41	3.33	2.98
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.29 ↑ (2.17)	3.25 ↓ (3.52)	3.18 ↓ (3.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mainz
41.3%

Draw
29%

Strasbourg
29.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.8%

27%

29.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.4%

27.2%

29.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Strasbourg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Strasbourg than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
61.8%	26.5%	11.8%

Mainz - Strasbourg Predictions

Users Predictions: 33 users predict this event. Mainz will win (votes: 21 - 63.6%). Strasbourg will win (votes: 4 - 12.1%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 24.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mainz: 47.2% – 80%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Mainz (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Strasbourg (1.74) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - Mainz (1.94) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Mainz (votes: 3 - 75%). Strasbourg (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Batz D. (G) 21. da Costa D. 4. Posch S. 31. Kohr D. 30. Widmer S. (C) 8. Nebel P. 6. Sano K. 24. Kawasaki S. 2. Mwene P. 44. Weiper N. 20. Tietz P.	39. Penders M. (G) 22. Doue G. 2. Omobamidele A. 6. Doukoure I. (C) 3. Chilwell B. 32. Barco V. 8. Oyedele M. 29. El Mourabet S. 19. Enciso J. 80. Yassine G. 20. Godo M.
Substitutes
35. Babatz L. (G) 14. Boving W. 42. Gleiber D. 34. Imafidon D. 15. Maloney L. 36. Moreno Fell F. 48. Potulski K. 1. Riess L. (G) 11. Sieb A. 22. Veratschnig N.	27. Amo-Ameyaw S. 17. Amougou M. 38. Bosey J. 10. Emegha E. 24. Hogsberg L. 1. Johnsson K. (G) 60. Kerckaert G. (G) 37. Kodia G. 83. Luis R. 7. Moreira D. 11. Nanasi S.
Coaches
Fischer U.	O'Neil G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Sano K. ⚽, Kawasaki S. (A),
19', 2 - 0, Posch S. ⚽, Nebel P. (A),
31', Doue G. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
64', Oyedele M. ↓, Moreira D. ↑,
64', Yassine G. ↓, Emegha E. ↑,
69', Mwene P. ↓, Veratschnig N. ↑,
69', Weiper N. ↓, Sieb A. ↑,
70', Kawasaki S. ↓, Boving W. ↑,
80', Widmer S. ↓, Potulski K. ↑,
85', Godo M. ↓, Nanasi S. ↑,
89', Nebel P. ↓, Maloney L. ↑,
90+5', Posch S. 🟨,
90+5', Moreira D. 🟨,
90+5', Sieb A. 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

Mainz has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Strasbourg is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Mainz could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Mainz: Becker S. (Inactive) Bos K. (Inactive) Dal M. (Knee Injury) Hollerbach B. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Silas (Broken shinbone) Tauer N. (Inactive)

There will not play in Strasbourg: Moreira D. (Groin Injury) Mwanga J. (Shoulder Injury) Panichelli J. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Strasbourg: Ouattara A. (Back Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Mainz won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Including home match between the teams, Mainz won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Mainz - the odds 2.17 are the expected chance of winning is 43.78%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mainz 05
German Bundesliga
04.04.26	Hoffenheim - Mainz	1:2 ✺
22.03.26	Mainz - Eintracht Frankfurt	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
19.03.26	Mainz - Sigma Olomouc	2:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
15.03.26	Werder Bremen - Mainz	0:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
12.03.26	Sigma Olomouc - Mainz	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.6 WWWWT
- RC Strasbourg
French Ligue 1
04.04.26	Strasbourg - Nice	3:1 ✺
22.03.26	Nantes - Strasbourg	2:3 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
19.03.26	Strasbourg - Rijeka	1:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
15.03.26	Strasbourg - Paris FC	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
12.03.26	Rijeka - Strasbourg	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WWTTW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
09.08.25	Mainz - Strasbourg	0:0

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