Match Info

Paulista - Round 4

Date: 21 January 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Alfredo de Castilho (Bauru)

Referee: Delgado M. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	HBO Max


	EC Noroeste		Capivariano

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.25	3.4	Watch
	2.45	3.1	2.95
	2.18	3.05	3.35
	2.16	3.19	3.49	Watch
	2.05	2.9	3.5
	2.12	3.37	3.52	Watch
	2.16	3.1	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.17 ↓ (2.19)	3.14 ↑ (3.05)	3.4 ↑ (3.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

EC Noroeste
43%

Draw
29.7%

Capivariano
27.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.2%

30.3%

27.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

EC Noroeste has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

The chances for Capivariano have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

EC Noroeste - Capivariano Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Luiz Daniel (G) 44. Maycon 5. Pedro Carrerette 3. Carlinhos (C) 2. Jhonny 70. Cristiano 8. Leo Sena 12. Sanchez 7. Pedro Felipe 27. Diego Mathias 9. Carlao	12. Guilherme Nogueira (G) 2. Diogo Mateus 3. Lucas Dias 4. Wendel Lomar 6. Leonan Santos 8. Octavio 5. Bruno Silva (C) 11. Thiago Moraes 10. Cassio Gabriel 17. Baianinho 9. Vinicius Popo
Substitutes
88. Denner 94. Jeferson Romario (G) 30. Leocovick 19. Leo Tocantins 4. Lucas Cunha 11. Marlyson 18. Rafael Silva 22. Renan Araujo 33. Ronaldo Alves 15. Taua 10. Thiago Lopes 20. Wesley Santos	16. Balao 7. Carlos Eduardo 18. Felipe Azevedo 13. Lailton Canabrava 22. Maranhao 14. Marcos Moser 19. Matheus Guilherme 21. Mike 20. Ravanelli 24. Tarcisio 1. Tiago Santos (G) 15. Vinicius Guedes
Coaches
Moises Egert	Sizenando E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
6', Leo Sena ↓, Denner ↑,
32', Bruno Silva 🟨,
36', Denner 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Baianinho ↓, Felipe Azevedo ↑,
46', Bruno Silva ↓, Vinicius Guedes ↑,
49', 0 - 1, Thiago Moraes ⚽, Felipe Azevedo (A),
51', Lucas Dias 🟨,
56', Pedro Felipe ↓, Marlyson ↑,
56', Diego Mathias ↓, Thiago Lopes ↑,
70', Jhonny ↓, Wesley Santos ↑,
70', Pedro Carrerette ↓, Leo Tocantins ↑,
74', 1 - 1, Marlyson (Penalty Awarded),
74', Leonan Santos ↓, Tarcisio ↑,
80', Octavio ↓, Balao ↑,
85', Vinicius Popo ↓, Carlos Eduardo ↑,

Preview

Noroeste may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Noroeste: PH (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Noroeste: Robertinho (Inactive)

There are questionable in Capivariano: Bastos R. (Injury) Ricardo Cerqueira (Inactive)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Noroeste won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.

Including home match between the teams, Noroeste won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Noroeste
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
18.01.26	São Bernardo - EC Noroeste	1:1 ✺
15.01.26	Botafogo SP - EC Noroeste	1:1 ✺
11.01.26	EC Noroeste - Red Bull Bragantino	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Paulista
29.08.25	União São João - EC Noroeste	3:0 ✺
23.08.25	EC Noroeste - União São João	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 TTLLW
- Capivariano FC
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
17.01.26	Capivariano - Ponte Preta	2:0 ✺
13.01.26	Capivariano - Portuguesa	1:0 ✺
10.01.26	São Bernardo - Capivariano	4:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
05.04.25	EC Primavera - Capivariano	1:2 ✺
02.04.25	Capivariano - EC Primavera	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 WWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
21.01.24	EC Noroeste - Capivariano	2:2

EC Noroeste - Capivariano: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide