Match Info

Paulista - Round 3

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Arena Capivari (Capivari)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	HBO Max


	Capivariano		Ponte Preta

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.2	5.25	Watch
	1.78	3.2	4.75
	1.9	3.24	4.37	Watch
	1.7	3.1	4.8
	1.78	3.29	5.4	Watch
	1.7	3.4	5.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↓ (2.21)	3.24 ↑ (2.92)	5.04 ↑ (3.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Capivariano
52.8%

Draw
28.8%

Ponte Preta
18.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.5%

31.4%

27.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Capivariano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Capivariano's performance.

Ponte Preta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ponte Preta might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

Capivariano - Ponte Preta Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Capivariano will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Capivariano (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Guilherme Nogueira (G) 2. Diogo Mateus 3. Octavio 4. Wendel Lomar 6. Leonan Santos 8. Vinicius Guedes 5. Bruno Silva (C) 7. Mike 10. Ravanelli 11. Felipe Azevedo 9. Rodolfo	12. Diogo Silva (G) 28. Pacheco 8. Nikolas Francisco 4. Saimon 15. Machado R. 5. Rodrigo Souza 35. Gustavo Telles 7. Diego Tavares 10. Elvis (C) 77. Bruno Lopes 9. Matheus
Substitutes
17. Baianinho 16. Balao 21. Carlos Eduardo 20. Cassio Gabriel 14. Lailton Canabrava 13. Lucas Dias 24. Marcos Moser 18. Matheus Guilherme 15. Tarcisio 1. Teixeira M. (G) 19. Thiago Moraes 22. Vinicius Popo	20. Chicao 30. Guilherme Viana (G) 18. Gustavo Almeida 33. Jean Carlos 99. Joao Damiao 27. Juan Rodrigues 2. Julio 17. Kaio Ganga 70. Lucas Emanuel 80. Pedrinho 38. Rabello
Coaches
Sizenando E.	Fernandes M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', 1 - 0, Rodolfo ⚽,
30', Machado R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Rodolfo ↓, Vinicius Popo ↑,
46', Machado R. ↓, Gustavo Almeida ↑,
46', Matheus ↓, Kaio Ganga ↑,
46', Nikolas Francisco ↓, Lucas Emanuel ↑,
49', Gustavo Almeida 🟨,
54', Ravanelli ↓, Thiago Moraes ↑,
57', Mike ↓, Matheus Guilherme ↑,
57', Felipe Azevedo ↓, Baianinho ↑,
59', Diego Tavares ↓, Julio ↑,
74', Vinicius Guedes ↓, Lucas Dias ↑,
79', Diogo Mateus 🟨,
79', Bruno Lopes ↓, Joao Damiao ↑,
90+1', Baianinho 🟨,
90+4', Vinicius Popo 🟨,
90+5', 2 - 0, Baianinho ⚽,

Preview

Ponte Preta may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Capivariano is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Capivariano: Ricardo Cerqueira (Inactive)

There will not play in Ponte Preta: Danilo Barcelos (Inactive)

There are questionable in Capivariano: Bastos R. (Injury)

There are questionable in Ponte Preta: Joao Gabriel (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Capivariano won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0. (average 1.5:0).

Including home matches between the teams, Capivariano won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0. (average 1.5:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Capivariano FC
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
13.01.26	Capivariano - Portuguesa	1:0 ✺
10.01.26	São Bernardo - Capivariano	4:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
05.04.25	EC Primavera - Capivariano	1:2 ✺
02.04.25	Capivariano - EC Primavera	0:0 ✺
29.03.25	Capivariano - Ituano	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 WLWTW
- AA Ponte Preta
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
14.01.26	Ponte Preta - Velo Clube	0:1 ✺
11.01.26	Corinthians - Ponte Preta	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
25.10.25	Ponte Preta - Londrina	2:0 ✺
18.10.25	Londrina - Ponte Preta	0:0 ✺
11.10.25	Ponte Preta - Guarani	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
19.03.16	Capivariano - Ponte Preta	0:0
08.04.15	Capivariano - Ponte Preta	3:0

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