Match Info

Gaucho - Troféu Farroupilha - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 22 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Francisco Novelletto Neto (Porto Alegre)


	EC São José Porto Alegre		Novo Hamburgo

	1	X	2
	2.1	2.9	3.3	Watch
	2.1	3	3.4
				Watch
	2	2.9	3.25
	2.17	3.13	3.47
	2.15	2.8	3.3
	2.21	3.05	3.47	Watch
	2.08	3.1	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↑ (2.03)	2.98 ↓ (3)	3.4 ↓ (3.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

EC São José Porto Alegre
42.9%

Draw
30.4%

Novo Hamburgo
26.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.6%

30.2%

25.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.4%

32.1%

23.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

EC São José Porto Alegre has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Novo Hamburgo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for EC São José Porto Alegre than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Novo Hamburgo than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

EC São José Porto Alegre - Novo Hamburgo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Peralta A. (G) 24. William 13. Tiago Pedra 3. Eduardo Melo 6. Angelo 5. Keverton 8. Ze Vitor 16. Gustavo Bagatini 11. Ronald Barcellos 10. Ivo 20. Andrey Nunes	1. Omar (G) 3. Romercio 4. Joao Marcus 6. Vinicius Kiss 2. Guilherme Mantuan 8. Carlos Maia 5. Amaral 10. Marcos Vinicius 7. Rone 9. Luam Parede 11. Leandro Moura
Substitutes
21. Adao 2. Anderson 7. Caua 22. Dieter 4. Diney 9. Douglas Oliveira 14. Evaristo 1. Fabio Rampi (G) 17. Gustavo Lino 18. Lucas Grafite 19. Pedrinho 15. Raphael Soares	17. Allison 12. Breno Boeno (G) 18. de Souza Marques S. 20. Henrique 16. Jhonata Lima 21. Joao Castro 19. Matheus Batista 22. Muriel 25. Pablo (G) 13. Santana V. 15. Santos C. 14. Vinicius Amaral
Coaches
Gabardo Junior	Rogerio Zimermann

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
26', Pedrinho 🟨,
36', Eduardo Melo 🟨,
44', Romercio 🟨,
45+2', Tiago Pedra 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Ivo ↓, Caua ↑,
48', 0 - 1, Leandro Moura ⚽,
52', Carlos Maia 🟨,
60', Carlos Maia ↓, Vinicius Kiss ↑,
60', Eduardo Melo ↓, Gabriel Lima ↑,
61', William 🟨,
68', Luam Parede ↓, Henrique ↑,
70', Andrey Nunes ↓, Gustavo Lino ↑,
70', Angelo ↓, Raphael Soares ↑,
75', 1 - 1, Gabriel Lima ⚽,
79', Leandro Moura ↓, Allison ↑,
83', Keverton 🟨,
84', William ↓, Douglas Oliveira ↑,
90+4', 1 - 2, Henrique ⚽,
90+5', Henrique 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 2-3. Second leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, EC São José won 3.

EC São José is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Hamburgo has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

EC São José may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

EC São José might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, EC São José won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 19:13. (average 1.2:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, EC São José won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:3. (average 1.4:0.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC São José Porto Alegre
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
14.02.26	Novo Hamburgo - EC São José Porto Alegre	3:2 ✺
09.02.26	Juventude - EC São José Porto Alegre	3:2 ✺
31.01.26	Ypiranga - EC São José Porto Alegre	1:1 ✺
26.01.26	EC São José Porto Alegre - Caxias	1:0 ✺
22.01.26	EC São José Porto Alegre - Monsoon	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LLTWL
- EC Novo Hamburgo
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
14.02.26	Novo Hamburgo - EC São José Porto Alegre	3:2 ✺
07.02.26	Grêmio - Novo Hamburgo	1:0 ✺
31.01.26	Novo Hamburgo - Guarany de Bagé	2:0 ✺
24.01.26	Avenida - Novo Hamburgo	1:1 ✺
21.01.26	São Luiz - Novo Hamburgo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
14.02.26	Novo Hamburgo - EC São José Porto Alegre	3:2
17.01.26	Novo Hamburgo - EC São José Porto Alegre	0:0
26.02.24	EC São José Porto Alegre - Novo Hamburgo	3:0
11.03.23	Novo Hamburgo - EC São José Porto Alegre	1:2
12.03.22	EC São José Porto Alegre - Novo Hamburgo	1:0
24.04.21	Novo Hamburgo - EC São José Porto Alegre	1:3
16.02.19	Novo Hamburgo - EC São José Porto Alegre	1:0

EC São José Porto Alegre - Novo Hamburgo: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide