Match Info

Paulista A3 - Round 14

Date: 15 March 2026, Sunday


	EC São Bernardo		Portuguesa Santista

	1	X	2
	2.3	2.78	3.15
	2.36	2.74	3.14
	2.41	2.81	3.09	Watch
	2.45	2.63	3
	2.29	3.12	3.22
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.36 ↓ (2.56)	2.82 ↓ (2.92)	3.12 ↑ (2.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

EC São Bernardo
38.5%

Draw
32.3%

Portuguesa Santista
29.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35%

30.8%

34.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.6%

31.2%

34.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

EC São Bernardo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Portuguesa Santista has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for EC São Bernardo than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Portuguesa Santista than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Portuguesa Santista could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

EC São Bernardo - Portuguesa Santista Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Portuguesa Santista (2.92) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Portuguesa Santista (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
45', 0 - 1, Lucas Xavier ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
63', 0 - 2, Mota P. ⚽,
90', 0 - 3, Xilu ⚽,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista A3 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista A3 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Portuguesa Santista is Qualified for Paulista A3 (Play Offs Quarter~finals)

In recent matches, EC São Bernardo has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Portuguesa Santista is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Recently, Portuguesa Santista has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, EC São Bernardo won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:4. (average 1:2).

Including home match between the teams, EC São Bernardo won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC São Bernardo
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A3
11.03.26	Bandeirante - EC São Bernardo	2:2 ✺
08.03.26	Itapirense - EC São Bernardo	0:3 ✺
04.03.26	EC São Bernardo - Rio Branco de Americana	4:0 ✺
01.03.26	Rio Claro - EC São Bernardo	1:0 ✺
25.02.26	EC São Bernardo - União Barbarense	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 TWWLL
- Portuguesa Santista
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A3
11.03.26	Portuguesa Santista - Rio Preto	1:0 ✺
08.03.26	Portuguesa Santista - Francana	1:0 ✺
04.03.26	União São João - Portuguesa Santista	1:0 ✺
01.03.26	Portuguesa Santista - Catanduva	3:1 ✺
22.02.26	Portuguesa Santista - Itapirense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa Paulista
30.07.23	Portuguesa Santista - EC São Bernardo	2:1
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
24.04.21	EC São Bernardo - Portuguesa Santista	1:2

EC São Bernardo - Portuguesa Santista: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide