Match Info

Liga Pro - Placement Group - Round 8

Date: 7 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito)

Referee: Leon R. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Teleamazonas, Zapping
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	El Nacional		SD Aucas

	1	X	2
	5.25	4.2	1.49	Watch
	5.5	4.15	1.5	Watch
	5.4	4.47	1.54
	5.27	4.66	1.52	Watch
	5	3.9	1.5
	5.31	4.24	1.55	Watch
	5.5	4.2	1.53
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.32 ↑ (4.15)	4.26 ↑ (3.99)	1.52 ↓ (1.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

El Nacional
17.4%

Draw
21.7%

SD Aucas
60.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.5%

23.4%

54%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22%

22.8%

55.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

El Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that El Nacional's form might have worsened.

SD Aucas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting SD Aucas's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for El Nacional than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for SD Aucas than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for SD Aucas, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	0%	85.7%

El Nacional - SD Aucas Predictions

Users Predictions: SD Aucas will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): SD Aucas will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Chala L. (G) 4. Cabezas Briones R. A. 18. Rivera B. 5. Flor F. 26. Mena A. 17. Velez C. (C) 15. Cela A. 55. Mejia Moreira J. D. 7. Chala J. 59. Borja F. 99. Reasco D.	32. Piedra H. (C) 27. Ciccioli U. 16. Rolon C. 3. Ontaneda J. 2. Segura E. 17. Mina J. 21. Spina A. L. 25. Jaramilo R. 22. Cano L. 7. Miranda B. 9. Montenegro B.
Substitutes
56. Benalcazar L. 11. Branda V. 16. Cifuentes J. 20. Guisamano J. 2. Mazamba S. 25. Montano M. 24. Mora F. 28. Puente J.	18. Almagro A. 40. Cabezas J. (G) 8. Mina A. 19. Pepinos E. 33. Porozo S. 28. Quinonez R. 5. Serpa T. 10. Uchuari J. 37. Zova A.
Coaches
Perez J. C.	Buch J. P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
11', Mejia Moreira J. D. 🟨,
17', Ontaneda J. 🟨,
18', 1 - 0, Mena A. ⚽,
27', Mejia Moreira J. D. ↓, Montano M. ↑,
45+1', 1 - 1, Miranda B. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Velez C. ↓, Puente J. ↑,
57', Rolon C. 🟨,
60', 2 - 1, Reasco D. (Penalty Awarded),
64', Rolon C. ↓, Mina A. ↑,
69', Jaramilo R. ↓, Quinonez R. ↑,
69', Mina J. ↓, Porozo S. ↑,
73', Borja F. ↓, Benalcazar L. ↑,
74', Ciccioli U. ↓, Almagro A. ↑,
74', Miranda B. ↓, Serpa T. ↑,
76', 3 - 1, Chala J. ⚽, Reasco D. (A),
84', Reasco D. ↓, Guisamano J. ↑,
87', Montano M. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, El Nacional won 1.

El Nacional has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Aucas is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In this match, Aucas is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, El Nacional won 2 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 21:31. (average 1.1:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, El Nacional won 0 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 10:15. (average 1.1:1.7).

Last Results with these Odds

El Nacional - the odds 4.15 are the expected chance of winning is 22.53%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD El Nacional
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
30.11.25	Deportivo Macará - El Nacional	2:0 ✺
21.11.25	Deportivo Cuenca - El Nacional	5:0 ✺
09.11.25	El Nacional - Emelec	2:1 ✺
01.11.25	SD Aucas - El Nacional	3:3 ✺
26.10.25	El Nacional - Deportivo Macará	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 LLWTW
- SD Aucas
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
30.11.25	SD Aucas - Deportivo Cuenca	2:1 ✺
22.11.25	Emelec - SD Aucas	0:2 ✺
10.11.25	SD Aucas - Delfín	8:0 ✺
01.11.25	SD Aucas - El Nacional	3:3 ✺
25.10.25	Deportivo Cuenca - SD Aucas	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
01.11.25	SD Aucas - El Nacional	3:3
14.07.25	SD Aucas - El Nacional	1:0
16.03.25	El Nacional - SD Aucas	0:1
24.08.24	El Nacional - SD Aucas	0:0
20.03.24	SD Aucas - El Nacional	3:4
05.08.23	El Nacional - SD Aucas	2:2
26.02.23	SD Aucas - El Nacional	0:2

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