Match Info

ECUADOR: Liga Pro - Round 4

Date: 8 March 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Jocay (Manta)

Referee: Cajas A. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, Ecuavisa, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	Manta		El Nacional

	1	X	2
	2.88	3.2	2.45	Watch
	2.45	3.1	2.6
	2.7	3.1	2.55	Watch
	2.98	3.1	2.6
	2.91	3.02	2.57	Watch
	2.7	3.1	2.5
	2.79	3.28	2.46	Watch
	2.7	3.1	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.76 ↑ (2.59)	3.13 ↑ (3.01)	2.54 ↑ (2.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Manta
33.6%

Draw
29.7%

El Nacional
36.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.5%

29.7%

35.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.7%

27.9%

33.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Manta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

El Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Manta than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for El Nacional than the current prediction. (-3%)

Manta - El Nacional Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Zambrano F. (G) 5. Acosta M. 3. Penarrieta J. 16. Quintero D. 13. Jaramillo M. 28. Zorrilla E. 85. Ospitaleche F. 80. Valencia M. 7. Cabezas D. 9. Valencia D. (C) 27. Ortiz R.	12. Cabezas D. (C) 25. Montano M. 30. Carabali F. 5. Flor F. 24. Mora F. 20. Guisamano J. 6. Olmedo M. 26. Mena A. 55. Mejia J. 21. Ledesma A. 99. Reasco D.
Substitutes
10. Aleman C. 50. Castillo A. 11. Corozo M. 23. Guerrero A. 70. Leiton D. 6. Navarrete L. 99. Pico E. (G) 53. Preciado R. 24. Ramirez B. 19. Riascos J.	11. Branda V. 4. Cabezas Briones R. A. 13. Caicedo E. 15. Cela A. 29. Cevallos J. 7. Chala J. 1. Chala L. (G) 16. Cifuentes J. 9. De Jesus B. 18. Rivera B. 17. Velez C.
Coaches
Mera E.	Asad O. A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
4', 1 - 0, Valencia D. ⚽,
32', Zorrilla E. 🟨,
41', Quintero D. 🟨,
42', 1 - 1, Mejia J. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 2)
46', Mena A. ↓, Cevallos J. ↑,
46', Ortiz R. ↓, Aleman C. ↑,
54', Valencia M. ↓, Riascos J. ↑,
57', Guisamano J. ↓, Chala J. ↑,
62', Zorrilla E. ↓, Castillo A. ↑,
68', 1 - 2, Chala J. ⚽,
71', 2 - 2, Aleman C. ⚽,
71', Reasco D. ↓, Velez C. ↑,
74', Velez C. 🟨,
79', 3 - 2, Valencia D. ⚽,
79', Mejia J. ↓, Branda V. ↑,
80', Olmedo M. ↓, Cifuentes J. ↑,
81', Jaramillo M. 🟨,
81', Carabali F. 🟨,
84', Cabezas D. ↓, Guerrero A. ↑,
84', Valencia D. ↓, Ramirez B. ↑,
87', Penarrieta J. 🟨,
90+6', Guerrero A. 🟨,
90+6', Riascos J. 🟨,
90+7', 3 - 3, Cifuentes J. (Pen),
90+10', 🟨,
90+12', 4 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Manta won 1.

Both teams are in bad shape now.

El Nacional could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 16 head-to-head matches Manta won 5 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 17:17 (average 1.1:1.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Manta won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 10:5 (average 1.3:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Manta FC
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
03.03.25	Manta - Delfín	2:2 ✺
23.02.25	Orense - Manta	2:1 ✺
14.02.25	Manta - Barcelona Guayaquil	2:3 ✺
Club Friendly
06.02.25	Delfín - Manta	0:0 ✺
25.01.25	Emelec - Manta	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 TLLTT
- CD El Nacional
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
02.03.25	El Nacional - Técnico Universitario	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
26.02.25	Barcelona Guayaquil - El Nacional	1:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
23.02.25	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - El Nacional	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
19.02.25	El Nacional - Barcelona Guayaquil	0:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
16.02.25	El Nacional - Deportivo Cuenca	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 TTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Serie B
04.10.22	Manta - El Nacional	0:1
28.08.22	El Nacional - Manta	1:0
08.06.22	Manta - El Nacional	0:1
13.04.22	El Nacional - Manta	1:0
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
10.12.14	Manta - El Nacional	2:1
13.08.14	El Nacional - Manta	2:1
13.04.14	El Nacional - Manta	1:2

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