Match Info

Liga Pro - Relegation Group - Round 3

Date: 19 October 2026, Monday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Bellavista (Ambato) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Zambrano Y. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Ecuador	15:30	Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	15:30	Zapping Sports


	Mushuc Runa		Orense

	1	X	2
	1.71	3.60	4.33	Watch
	1.72	3.40	4.20
	1.80	3.50	5.11
	1.72	3.64	4.79	Watch
	1.78	3.25	5.05
	1.77	3.63	4.37	Watch
	1.74	3.45	4.20
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↓ (1.91)	3.5 ↑ (3.34)	4.58 ↑ (4.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mushuc Runa
53.1%

Draw
26.6%

Orense
20.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

49%

28%

23%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.8%

28.1%

23.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mushuc Runa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

Orense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mushuc Runa than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Orense than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Mushuc Runa - Orense Predictions

Users Predictions: Mushuc Runa will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Formento R. (C) 99. Angulo C. 30. Carabali F. 4. Biojo R. 33. Hernandez J. 7. Minda T. 5. Davila E. 8. Zambrano A. 28. Perea M. 9. Tufino R. 10. Mina F.	12. Silva R. (G) 31. Velasco P. 24. Achilier G. (C) 3. Mina S. 15. Caicedo B. 21. Rostagno G. 4. Quinonez S. 25. Jaramilo R. 77. Vinan B. 19. Bermudez M. 11. Herrera A.
Substitutes
11. Bazan N. 14. Caicedo E. 61. Caicedo J. 19. Corozo B. 50. Cusme J. 2. Flor F. 18. Gonzalez J. 37. Mancilla Quinones J. L. 52. Merino D. 42. Pabon W. (G) 26. Peralta K. 53. Solis D.	74. Barrio C. 6. Callegari S. 23. Chuchuca W. 53. Garces L. 26. Molina N. 51. Ortiz C. 22. Ortiz J. (G) 14. Pluas E. 2. Quinonez B. 88. Valencia J. 59. Vera J.
Coaches
Velez P.	Buch J. P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
5', 0 - 1, Herrera A. ⚽, Caicedo B. (A),
22', 1 - 1, Mina F. (Penalty Awarded),
38', Buch J. P. 🟨,
42', Minda T. ↓, Caicedo J. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
56', Velasco P. ↓, Quinonez B. ↑,
58', Tufino R. ↓, Corozo B. ↑,
58', Zambrano A. ↓, Bazan N. ↑,
61', Biojo R. 🟨,
61', Formento R. 🟨,
69', Vinan B. ↓, Chuchuca W. ↑,
75', Mina F. ↓, Caicedo E. ↑,
76', Perea M. ↓, Peralta K. ↑,
76', Herrera A. ↓, Garces L. ↑,
76', Bermudez M. ↓, Valencia J. ↑,
76', Rostagno G. ↓, Ortiz C. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mushuc Runa won 2.

The recent form of both sides has fallen below expectations.

Recently, Mushuc Runa has faced a series of away games on the road.

In this matchup, Mushuc Runa is considered the favorite to take the win.

In the last 15 head-to-head meetings, Mushuc Runa has recorded 6 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 22:18 (averaging 1.5:1.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Mushuc Runa against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss, with 13:9 goals (averaging 1.6:1.1 per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Orense - the odds 4.06 are the expected chance of winning is 23.03%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mushuc Runa
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
09.10.26	Delfín - Mushuc Runa	3:2 ✺
20.09.26	Deportivo Cuenca - Mushuc Runa	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Guayaquil City - Mushuc Runa	3:1 ✺
07.09.26	Mushuc Runa - Leones del Norte	1:1 ✺
01.09.26	LDU Quito - Mushuc Runa	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 LTLTT
- Orense SC
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
11.10.26	Orense - Deportivo Cuenca	0:0 ✺
21.09.26	Manta - Orense	2:1 ✺
14.09.26	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Orense	2:1 ✺
07.09.26	Orense - Guayaquil City	4:3 ✺
03.09.26	Leones del Norte - Orense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 TLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
20.07.26	Mushuc Runa - Orense	2:1
19.03.26	Orense - Mushuc Runa	3:2
13.09.25	Orense - Mushuc Runa	3:1
17.05.25	Mushuc Runa - Orense	2:5
Copa Sudamericana
05.03.25	Mushuc Runa - Orense	2:1
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
22.09.24	Mushuc Runa - Orense	3:0
05.04.24	Orense - Mushuc Runa	2:2

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