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Current Win Probability
Mushuc Runa 51.6%
Draw 26.5%
Orense 21.9%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
41.3%
27.9%
30.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
37.6%
25.4%
33.7%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Mushuc Runa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.3%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Mushuc Runa's performance.
Orense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.8%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Orense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mushuc Runa than the current prediction. (-14%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mushuc Runa that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Orense than the current prediction. (+11.8%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Orense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
83.3%
16.7%
0%
Mushuc Runa - Orense Predictions
Users Predictions:
18 users predict this event. Mushuc Runa will win (votes: 15 - 83.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 16.7%). Confidence interval (95%) for Mushuc Runa: 66.1% – 100%.
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Mushuc Runa (votes: 1 - 100%).
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
O/U 1.5 - over (1.30) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
25. Formento R. (G) 99. Angulo C. 4. Biojo R. 50. Cusme J. 33. Hernandez J. 7. Minda T. 5. Davila E. 8. Zambrano A. 28. Perea M. 30. Ibarra R. 9. Carrillo R.
22. Ortiz J. (G) 2. Quinonez B. 6. Callegari S. 5. Lorenzo A. 15. Caicedo B. (C) 21. Rostagno G. 54. Zambrano Pesantez E. S. 7. Vasquez S. 25. Jaramilo R. 11. Herrera A. 19. Bermudez M.
Substitutes
61. Caicedo J. 12. Carabali F. 22. Collaguazo J. (G) 19. Corozo B. 2. Flor F. 18. Gonzalez J. 23. Lemos L. 37. Mancilla Quinones J. L. 52. Merino D. 42. Pabon W. (G) 26. Peralta K.
8. Armas D. 52. Bravo Y. 53. Garces L. 50. Hernandez E. 57. Mairongo S. 51. Ortiz C. 14. Pluas E. 4. Quinonez S. 33. Quintero D. 12. Silva R. (G) 59. Vera J. 77. Vinan B.
Coaches
Velez P.
Torres H.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 1)
9', 1 - 0, Carrillo R. ⚽, Hernandez J. (A),
18', Quinonez B. 🟨,
32', Callegari S. 🟨,
45+5', 1 - 1, Bermudez M. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Quinonez B. ↓, Quinonez S. ↑,
49', 2 - 1, Carrillo R. ⚽, Perea M. (A),
70', Rostagno G. 🟨,
71', Zambrano Pesantez E. S. ↓, Garces L. ↑,
71', Herrera A. ↓, Vera J. ↑,
71', Zambrano A. ↓, Corozo B. ↑,
77', Hernandez J. ↓, Caicedo J. ↑,
78', Vasquez S. ↓, Armas D. ↑,
78', Jaramilo R. ↓, Quintero D. ↑,
81', Ibarra R. ↓, Carabali F. ↑,
83', Caicedo J. 🟨,
85', Cusme J. 🟨,
89', Lorenzo A. 🟨,
Preview
A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 14 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: ) and 12 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: ))
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mushuc Runa won 2.
Recent form of Mushuc Runa has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Orense has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
Mushuc Runa could have a small edge in this match.
In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Mushuc Runa won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 20:17. (average 1.4:1.2).
Including home matches between the teams, Mushuc Runa won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:8. (average 1.6:1.1).
Ecuador
Peru
Usa
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Formento R. (G) 
Angulo C. 
Callegari S. 
Quintero D. 
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