Match Info

Date: 19 November 2020, Thursday


	El Nacional		Universidad Católica

	1	X	2
	4	3.5	1.8	Watch
	4	3.4	1.8
	3.85	3.4	1.8	Watch
	3.9	3.5	1.79
	4.33	3.96	1.77
	4	3.5	1.8	Watch
	4.25	3.8	1.79
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.05 ↑ (3.44)	3.58 ↑ (3.45)	1.79 ↓ (2.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

El Nacional
22.8%

Draw
25.8%

Universidad Católica
51.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.2%

27.1%

45.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.9%

20.8%

59.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

El Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Universidad Católica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Universidad Católica's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for El Nacional than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Universidad Católica than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Universidad Católica could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.2%	8.1%	75.7%

El Nacional - Universidad Católica Predictions

Users Predictions: 37 users predict this event. El Nacional will win (votes: 6 - 16.2%). Uni Católica will win (votes: 28 - 75.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 8.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Uni Católica: 61.9% – 89.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

Super game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 16 and 9).

El Nacional is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Universidad Católica is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

El Nacional could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Universidad Católica will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 27 head-to-head matches El Nacional won 9 matches, drawn 9 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 36-34.

Including matches at home between the teams El Nacional won 3 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 14-17.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD El Nacional
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
15.11.20	El Nacional - Barcelona Guayaquil	1:1 ✺
10.11.20	Técnico Universitario - El Nacional	1:0 ✺
06.11.20	El Nacional - Delfín	1:3 ✺
30.10.20	Deportivo Cuenca - El Nacional	0:0 ✺
24.10.20	LDU Quito - El Nacional	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 TLLTL
- Universidad Católica
Chilean Primera Division
18.11.20	Coquimbo Unido - Universidad Católica	2:1 ✺
15.11.20	Universidad Católica - Cobresal	2:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
15.11.20	Olmedo - Universidad Católica	2:1 ✺
11.11.20	Universidad Católica - Guayaquil City	2:1 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
11.11.20	Curicó Unido - Universidad Católica	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
23.08.20	Universidad Católica - El Nacional	1:1
25.08.19	El Nacional - Universidad Católica	0:1
07.04.19	Universidad Católica - El Nacional	3:1
19.10.18	El Nacional - Universidad Católica	1:3
01.09.18	Universidad Católica - El Nacional	1:2
26.05.18	Universidad Católica - El Nacional	1:1
06.04.18	El Nacional - Universidad Católica	0:0

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