Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 24

Date: 10 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito)

Referee: Diaz A. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	El Nacional		Barcelona Guayaquil

	1	X	2
	3.25	3.3	2.2
	3	3.1	2.1
	3.15	3.1	2.18	Watch
	3.4	3.17	2.27
	3.31	3.11	2.27	Watch
	3.1	3	2.3
	3.19	3.19	2.26	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.2 ↑ (2.97)	3.14 ↓ (3.19)	2.23 ↓ (2.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

El Nacional
28.9%

Draw
29.5%

Barcelona Guayaquil
41.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.7%

29.5%

38.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32%

29.8%

38.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

El Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Barcelona Guayaquil has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for El Nacional than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Barcelona Guayaquil than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	20%	60%

El Nacional - Barcelona Guayaquil Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. El Nacional will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Barcelona will win (votes: 3 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Barcelona (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Cabezas D. (C) 4. Cabezas Briones R. A. 5. Flor F. 18. Rivera B. 77. Hernandez B. 13. Caicedo E. 17. Velez C. 15. Cela A. 98. Mejia Moreira J. D. 10. Borja J. 99. Reasco D.	16. De Arruabarrena I. (G) 18. Carabali B. 14. Rangel A. 3. Arreaga X. (C) 4. Vallecilla G. 17. Montano J. 28. Quinonez Ruiz J. R. 30. Oyola B. 21. Valiente J. 13. Corozo J. 33. Parrales M.
Substitutes
56. Benalcazar L. 59. Borja F. 11. Branda V. 66. Chala J. 1. Chala L. (G) 9. De Jesus B. 20. Guisamano J. 60. Maya J. 2. Mazamba S. 26. Mena A. 25. Montano M. 28. Puente J.	23. Arroyo D. 41. Calle P. 26. Castillo Segura B. D. 6. Chala A. 8. Cortez Casierra G. J. 7. Gomez J. 15. Guerra F. 2. Mario Pineida 77. Pinargote Lara K. D. (G) 25. Solano C. 22. Souza de Almeida L. 27. Vargas W.
Coaches
Perez J. C.	Rescalvo I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
20', 0 - 1, Corozo J. ⚽, Parrales M. (A),
24', 1 - 1, Borja F. ⚽, Reasco D. (A),
35', 1 - 2, Parrales M. (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Borja J. ↓, Guisamano J. ↑,
46', Mejia Moreira J. D. ↓, Branda V. ↑,
58', Hernandez B. ↓, Maya J. ↑,
59', Velez C. ↓, Borja F. ↑,
64', Vallecilla G. 🟨,
65', Oyola B. ↓, Castillo Segura B. D. ↑,
73', Quinonez Ruiz J. R. ↓, Arroyo D. ↑,
73', Parrales M. ↓, Solano C. ↑,
82', Flor F. ↓, Mazamba S. ↑,
90', Valiente J. ↓, Guerra F. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, El Nacional won 1.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Barcelona will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, El Nacional won 4 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 24:35. (average 1.2:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, El Nacional won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 17:10. (average 1.7:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD El Nacional
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
02.08.25	Independiente del Valle - El Nacional	1:0 ✺
25.07.25	El Nacional - Libertad Loja	2:2 ✺
19.07.25	Orense - El Nacional	1:1 ✺
14.07.25	SD Aucas - El Nacional	1:0 ✺
06.07.25	El Nacional - Manta	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LTTLW
- Barcelona Guayaquil
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
02.08.25	Barcelona Guayaquil - Orense	2:0 ✺
24.07.25	Barcelona Guayaquil - LDU Quito	0:1 ✺
19.07.25	Delfín - Barcelona Guayaquil	0:1 ✺
12.07.25	Barcelona Guayaquil - Técnico Universitario	1:1 ✺
05.07.25	Independiente del Valle - Barcelona Guayaquil	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WLWTT

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
18.04.25	Barcelona Guayaquil - El Nacional	1:0
Copa Libertadores
26.02.25	Barcelona Guayaquil - El Nacional	1:1
19.02.25	El Nacional - Barcelona Guayaquil	0:1
Club Friendly
16.11.24	Barcelona Guayaquil - El Nacional	6:0
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
05.10.24	El Nacional - Barcelona Guayaquil	3:0
18.04.24	Barcelona Guayaquil - El Nacional	1:0
05.11.23	Barcelona Guayaquil - El Nacional	3:2

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