Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 11

Date: 3 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado (Quito)

Referee: Salazar B. L. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Teleamazonas, Zapping
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	LDU Quito		El Nacional

	1	X	2
	1.53	4	6.5	Watch
	1.47	3.9	5.5
	1.5	4.1	5.8	Watch
	1.52	4.16	6.3
	1.51	4.05	6.39	Watch
	1.53	3.8	5.8
	1.51	4.13	6.11	Watch
	1.5	4.1	5.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.51 ↑ (1.5)	4.03 ↓ (4.12)	6.03 ↑ (5.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

LDU Quito
61.5%

Draw
23%

El Nacional
15.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62%

22.5%

15.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.9%

21.8%

15%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

LDU Quito has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

El Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for LDU Quito than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for El Nacional than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

LDU Quito - El Nacional Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Dominguez A. (C) 14. Quintero J. 6. Aimar D. 2. Erique Villigua Y. H. 3. Mina R. 5. Minda K. 20. Cornejo F. 10. Alvarado A. 23. Diaz M. 7. Pastran L. 19. Arce A.	12. Cabezas D. (C) 30. Carabali F. 4. Cabezas Briones R. A. 5. Flor F. 17. Velez C. 20. Guisamano J. 14. Pazmino D. 15. Cela A. 19. Mejia E. 13. Caicedo E. 99. Reasco D.
Substitutes
4. Ade R. 30. Allala Menendez G. F. 9. Alzugaray L. 24. Cabeza A. 21. Castillo E. 31. de la Cruz D. I. 26. Duran P. 33. Quinonez L. 32. Rodriguez J. 1. Valle G. (G) 12. Villa A. (G) 15. Villamil G.	59. Borja F. 11. Branda V. 29. Cevallos J. 33. Congo J. (G) 9. De Jesus B. 21. Ledesma A. 8. Martinez F. 55. Mejia J. 25. Montano M. 24. Mora F. 6. Olmedo M. 18. Rivera B.
Coaches
Sanchez P.	Asad O. A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
4', 1 - 0, Aimar D. ⚽, Alvarado A. (A),
9', 1 - 1, Carabali F. ⚽, Mejia E. (A),
14', Flor F. 🟨,
20', Pastran L. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
53', Carabali F. ↓, Montano M. ↑,
63', Pastran L. ↓, Duran P. ↑,
63', Diaz M. ↓, Alzugaray L. ↑,
65', Reasco D. ↓, Cevallos J. ↑,
65', Guisamano J. ↓, Ledesma A. ↑,
71', Quintero J. ↓, de la Cruz D. I. ↑,
71', Minda K. ↓, Rodriguez J. ↑,
80', Cela A. ↓, Rivera B. ↑,
81', Mejia E. ↓, Mejia J. ↑,
83', Cornejo F. ↓, Cabeza A. ↑,
85', 1 - 2, Pazmino D. ⚽, Cevallos J. (A),
85', Pazmino D. 🟨,
86', Mina R. 🟨,
90', 2 - 2, Arce A. ⚽,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: ) and 15 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, LDU Quito won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

LDU Quito may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, LDU Quito is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, LDU Quito won 8 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 28:26. (average 1.4:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, LDU Quito won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:9. (average 1.2:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- LDU Quito
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
26.04.25	Manta - LDU Quito	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
22.04.25	LDU Quito - Flamengo	0:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
18.04.25	LDU Quito - SD Aucas	3:1 ✺
14.04.25	Mushuc Runa - LDU Quito	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
09.04.25	LDU Quito - Deportivo Táchira	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 TTWLW
- CD El Nacional
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
25.04.25	El Nacional - Delfín	3:2 ✺
18.04.25	Barcelona Guayaquil - El Nacional	1:0 ✺
14.04.25	El Nacional - Independiente del Valle	1:3 ✺
04.04.25	Libertad Loja - El Nacional	1:3 ✺
30.03.25	El Nacional - Orense	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Super Cup
01.02.25	El Nacional - LDU Quito	0:1 penalties
Ecuadorian Copa
02.10.24	LDU Quito - El Nacional	0:1 penalties
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
21.09.24	LDU Quito - El Nacional	1:1
06.04.24	El Nacional - LDU Quito	1:2
18.08.23	LDU Quito - El Nacional	0:0
19.03.23	El Nacional - LDU Quito	0:2
Club Friendly
29.01.23	LDU Quito - El Nacional	1:2

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