Match Info

Liga Pro - Placement Group - Round 10

Date: 19 December 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito)

Referee: Zambrano R. (Ecu)


	El Nacional		Delfín

	1	X	2
	1.61	3.9	4
	1.68	4.05	4.05
	1.63	4	3.9
	1.71	4.16	4.16	Watch
	1.67	3.75	4
	1.7	4.09	4.21	Watch
	1.66	4.25	4.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↑ (1.61)	4.03 ↓ (4.27)	4.08 ↓ (4.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

El Nacional
54.9%

Draw
22.7%

Delfín
22.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58%

21.9%

20.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.3%

19%

23.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

El Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Delfín has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for El Nacional than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Delfín than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

El Nacional - Delfín Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, El Nacional won 3.

El Nacional has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Delfín is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, El Nacional is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, El Nacional won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 27:34. (average 1.4:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, El Nacional won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:15. (average 1.4:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD El Nacional
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
15.12.25	Emelec - El Nacional	5:0 ✺
07.12.25	El Nacional - SD Aucas	3:1 ✺
30.11.25	Deportivo Macará - El Nacional	2:0 ✺
21.11.25	Deportivo Cuenca - El Nacional	5:0 ✺
09.11.25	El Nacional - Emelec	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 LWLLW
- Delfín SC
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
13.12.25	Delfín - SD Aucas	0:1 ✺
05.12.25	Deportivo Cuenca - Delfín	0:0 ✺
30.11.25	Delfín - Emelec	0:1 ✺
23.11.25	Deportivo Macará - Delfín	3:0 ✺
10.11.25	SD Aucas - Delfín	8:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
04.10.25	Delfín - El Nacional	2:2
15.08.25	Delfín - El Nacional	0:3
25.04.25	El Nacional - Delfín	3:2
20.10.24	Delfín - El Nacional	1:1
29.04.24	El Nacional - Delfín	1:0
30.09.23	El Nacional - Delfín	2:2
30.04.23	Delfín - El Nacional	2:0

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