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Valencia - Real Sociedad: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide

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Match Info

  • LaLiga - Round 7
  • Date: 20 September 2026, Sunday
  • Location: Estadio de Mestalla (Valencia)
  • Referee: Munuera J. (Esp)
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    Valencia Real Sociedad
    Valencia Real Sociedad
    1 X 2
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    Bovada 2.95 3.45 2.42
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.95 ↑
    (2.23)    		 3.37 ↓
    (3.47)    		 2.45 ↓
    (3.16)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

    • The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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    Current Win Probability

    Valencia
    32.5%    		Draw
    28.4%    		Real Sociedad
    39.1%

    Initial Probability

    (when we started the analysis)
    42.6% 27.4% 30.1%

    Our Initial ML Estimation

    44.5% 28.6% 28.8%


    Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Valencia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.1%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Valencia's form might have worsened.
  • Real Sociedad has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Real Sociedad's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Valencia than the current prediction. (+12%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Valencia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Sociedad than the current prediction. (-10.3%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Real Sociedad, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

    • Who will win by Users?

    1
    X
    2
    32% 28% 40%

    Valencia - Real Sociedad Predictions

  • Users Predictions: 25 users predict this event. Valencia will win (votes: 8 - 32%). Real Sociedad will win (votes: 10 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 28%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Real Sociedad: 20.8% – 59.2%.
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Real Sociedad (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • AH 0 - Valencia (2.03) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Valencia (votes: 2 - 50%). Real Sociedad (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).
  • Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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    Lineups

    Starting Lineups
      1. NorthDimitrievski S. (G)
    24. ArgentinaMaffeo P.
    18. SpainPepelu
    12. NetherlandsDe Haas J.
    14. SpainGaya J. (C)
    23. SwitzerlandUgrinic F.
    33. SpainMayol A.
      2. ArgentinaRodriguez G.
      7. NetherlandsDanjuma A.
      8. SpainGuerra J.
      9. SpainDuro H.
    		  1. SpainRemiro A. (G)
      2. VenezuelaAramburu J.
    34. SpainBeitia L.
      6. SpainMartin J.
    17. SpainGomez S.
    12. KenyaOchieng J.
      4. SpainGorrotxategi J.
    18. SpainSoler C.
    11. PortugalGuedes G.
    24. CroatiaSucic L.
    10. SpainOyarzabal M. (C)
    Substitutes
    37. SpainBlazquez A.
    36. SpainCordoba I.
    15. MaliDieng A.
    10. EnglandElliott H.
    22. SpainMartinez A.
    27. SpainOtorbi D.
    29. SpainPanach A.
    19. SpainRaba D.
    11. SpainRioja L.
    39. JapanSato R.
    25. Netherlandsvan Oevelen K. (G)
    21. SpainVazquez J.
    		  7. SpainBarrenetxea A.
    22. SpainFort H.
    21. VenezuelaHerrera Y.
    14. JapanKubo T.
    29. SpainMarchal A.
    13. SpainMarrero U. (G)
      3. SpainMunoz A.
      9. IcelandOskarsson O.
    16. SpainPacheco J.
    19. SenegalSarr M.
      8. SpainTurrientes B.
    23. RussiaZakharyan A.
    Coaches
         SpainSanchez O.
    		     USAMatarazzo P.

    Key Events of the Match

    • 1st Half (0 - 1)
    • 11', De Haas J. 🟨,
    • 12', Gaya J. 🟨,
    • 26', 0 - 1, Sucic L. ⚽, Ochieng J. (A),
    • 2nd Half (2 - 2)
    • 46', Ugrinic F. ↓, Otorbi D. ↑,
    • 54', Sucic L. 🟨,
    • 57', 1 - 1, Mayol A. ⚽, Duro H. (A),
    • 61', Oyarzabal M. ↓, Oskarsson O. ↑,
    • 61', Ochieng J. ↓, Barrenetxea A. ↑,
    • 69', Rodriguez G. ↓, Elliott H. ↑,
    • 69', Gorrotxategi J. ↓, Herrera Y. ↑,
    • 69', Gomez S. ↓, Munoz A. ↑,
    • 76', 1 - 2, Soler C. (Penalty Awarded),
    • 82', Duro H. ↓, Blazquez A. ↑,
    • 82', Gaya J. ↓, Vazquez J. ↑,
    • 84', 2 - 2, Beitia L. (Own goal),
    • 87', Sucic L. ↓, Zakharyan A. ↑,
    • 88', Danjuma A. ↓, Rioja L. ↑,
    • 90+1', 2 - 3, Barrenetxea A. ⚽, Soler C. (A),
    • 90+6', Oskarsson O. 🟨,
    • 90+6', Oskarsson O. 🟨,

    Preview

  • A team fighting near the bottom hosts a mid-table side in a match full of urgency (ranked 19th in the Relegation ~ LaLiga2 and 13th).
  • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Valencia won 2.
  • Valencia is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).
  • Performances by Real Sociedad have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).
  • Real Sociedad may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.
  • Recently, Real Sociedad has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.
  • In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.
  • Confirmed absences for Valencia: Canos S. (Knee Injury) Copete J. (Ankle Injury) Diakhaby M. (Muscle Injury) Foulquier D. (Injury) Lopez D. (Knee Injury) Sadiq U. (Muscle Injury) Tarrega C. (Hamstring Injury).
  • Confirmed absences for Real Sociedad: Odriozola A. (Knee Injury) Zubeldia I. (Injury).
  • In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Valencia has recorded 7 wins, 7 draws, and 6 losses, with a goal aggregate of 22:25 (averaging 1.1:1.3 goals per game).
  • Specifically in home fixtures for Valencia against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses, with 10:9 goals (averaging 1:0.9 per game).

    • Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now
    Real Sociedad: 0.42% Valencia: 0.31%

    Standings

    PlWDLDiffPts
    8Real Sociedad73139:13-410
    19Valencia71154:13-94

    Last Results with these Odds

    Valencia - the odds 2.23 are the expected chance of winning is 42.58%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

    Form
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - CF Valencia
    Spanish LaLiga
    15.09.26 Deportivo Alavés - Valencia 0:1 ✺
    11.09.26 Sevilla - Valencia 1:0 ✺
    06.09.26 Valencia - Barcelona 0:5 ✺
    30.08.26 Deportivo A Coruña - Valencia 3:1 ✺
    25.08.26 Valencia - Betis 0:1 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9
    WLLLL
    - Real Sociedad
    UEFA Europa League
    17.09.26 Real Sociedad - Bournemouth 1:2 ✺
    Spanish LaLiga
    13.09.26 Real Sociedad - Atlético Madrid 0:3 ✺
    07.09.26 Elche - Real Sociedad 2:3 ✺
    03.09.26 Real Sociedad - Celta de Vigo 0:0 ✺
    29.08.26 Real Sociedad - Espanyol 2:1 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8
    LLWTW
    Latest Head to Head
    Spanish LaLiga
    17.05.26 Real Sociedad - Valencia 3:4
    16.08.25 Valencia - Real Sociedad 1:1
    19.01.25 Valencia - Real Sociedad 1:0
    28.09.24 Real Sociedad - Valencia 3:0
    16.05.24 Real Sociedad - Valencia 1:0
    27.09.23 Valencia - Real Sociedad 0:1
    25.02.23 Valencia - Real Sociedad 1:0
    Upcoming Matches
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - CF Valencia
    Spanish LaLiga
    11.10.26 Racing Santander - Valencia ✺
    - Real Sociedad
    UEFA Europa League
    15.10.26 Saint-Gilloise - Real Sociedad ✺
    Spanish LaLiga
    11.10.26 Real Sociedad - Deportivo A Coruña ✺

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