Match Info

Esiliiga - Round 27

Date: 13 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Nike Arena (Elva)


	Elva		Nõmme United

	1	X	2
	5.25	4.6	1.41
	5.9	5.15	1.34
	5.81	4.95	1.34
	10.45	6.87	1.18	Watch
	5.92	5.12	1.42	Watch
	4.9	4.75	1.46
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.37 ↑ (4.9)	5.24 ↑ (4.6)	1.36 ↓ (1.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Elva
14.5%

Draw
17.6%

Nõmme United
67.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.2%

19.4%

62.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.9%

19.1%

63.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Elva has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Nõmme United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Nõmme United's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Elva than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nõmme United than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Elva - Nõmme United Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Nõmme United (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Nõmme United (2.07) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Nõmme United (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
77. Rebane S. (G) 11. Kaos M. 2. Leppsalu K. 5. Jagodinskis R. 55. Lani G. 23. Lindmae R. 18. Poldsaar K. 15. Jaagant R. 10. Reilson J. (C) 4. Bangura A. 24. Sanchez L.	1. Lagus G. (G) 23. Laanelaid K. 55. Chanda R. 6. Palts M. 3. Merilai S. 10. Frolov A. (C) 22. Radomskiy A. 13. Truuvaart A. 51. Beglarishvili Z. 20. Matas K. 9. Ounapuu E.
Substitutes
36. Ilves E. 13. Kanter J. 25. Karasjov N. 1. Kruus K. (G) 6. Kutt V. 27. Laaneots D. 7. Paju A. 16. Thomson M.	4. Alteberg A. 11. Benjamin C. 92. Kokka K. 7. Leppik R. 12. Marmei M. 79. Ossep L. 71. Purg G. (G) 8. Vain B. 14. Vassiljev N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
6', 0 - 1, Beglarishvili Z. ⚽,
16', 🟨,
21', 0 - 2, Ounapuu E. ⚽, Palts M. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
59', 🟨,
61', 🟨,
63', 0 - 3, Ounapuu E. ⚽,
76', 1 - 3, Paju A. ⚽,
79', 🟨,
85', 1 - 4, Ossep L. ⚽,
88', 🟨,
90', 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Elva won 0.

In recent matches, Elva has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Nõmme United is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Nõmme United is considered a favorite.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Elva won 3 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 27:42. (average 1.5:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Elva won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 20:26. (average 2:2.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Elva
Estonian Esiliiga
30.08.25	Nõmme Kalju U21 - Elva	0:1 ✺
24.08.25	Elva - Tallinna Kalev U21	0:2 ✺
16.08.25	FC Tallinn - Elva	1:2 ✺
09.08.25	Elva - Levadia Tallinn U21	2:0 ✺
04.08.25	Elva - Tartu Welco	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WLWWL
- Nõmme United
Estonian Esiliiga
31.08.25	Nõmme United - FC Tallinn	6:0 ✺
23.08.25	Nõmme United - Nõmme Kalju U21	2:1 ✺
16.08.25	Tammeka U21 - Nõmme United	1:3 ✺
11.08.25	Viimsi JK - Nõmme United	1:1 ✺
02.08.25	Nõmme United - Levadia Tallinn U21	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Esiliiga
28.06.25	Nõmme United - Elva	4:1
17.04.25	Elva - Nõmme United	0:2
12.11.23	Elva - Nõmme United	0:7
16.09.23	Nõmme United - Elva	5:2
29.05.23	Elva - Nõmme United	0:2
21.04.23	Nõmme United - Elva	1:1
08.10.22	Nõmme United - Elva	2:0

Upcoming Matches